On Monday, October 26, during the Asian session, gold rebounded to around 4019, a level that aligns precisely with the short-term pivot resistance zone. Whether this becomes the intraday high depends on whether the European and U.S. sessions can break through with strong volume.
On the news front, after gold prices fell below the 4000 mark last week, structural support from central bank gold purchases and Federal Reserve rate hike expectations are pulling in opposite directions. Goldman Sachs estimates that global central banks purchased 79 tonnes of gold in August, far exceeding the pre-2022 average, providing a floor for gold prices. However, short-term direction remains constrained by interest rate expectations. With the Fed's policy meeting approaching this week, the market is pricing in roughly a 90% probability that rates will remain unchanged in October, but December rate hike expectations are relatively strong, which limits the sustainability of gold's rebound.
On the technical front, after 4019 came under pressure and turned downward, the European and U.S. sessions will first use this level to determine the bullish or bearish bias. If there is an upward breakout, attention should be paid to the 1-hour Bollinger Band upper rail at 4025, the daily MA5 moving average resistance at 4040, the 4-hour Bollinger Band middle rail pressure point at 4050, and the daily trendline resistance at 4066. The early-week gold rebound is expected to peak below 4066, and I will provide real-time cues on the pace of gains and losses. On the support side, watch the 1-hour Bollinger Band middle rail at 4003 first. If broken downward, focus on the 1-hour Bollinger Band lower rail at 3983. Last Friday's low was 3975, and this morning's low was 3976. Tonight's defensive bullish entry point is above 3976. If broken downward, refer directly to the previous low around 3943, which is also the 4-hour Bollinger Band lower rail support point.
Overall, with gold prices rebounding during Monday's daytime session, I predict that the evening price action will peak and then pull back to repair indicators. One point to note: the weekly Bollinger Band lower rail has shifted down from last week's 3912 level to the current 3881 area. If 3975 is broken early in the week, further declines are certain. For those looking to build swing long positions, I believe it is best to wait until the bottom is confirmed in the latter half of the week before entering.
Gold Reference Strategy
Current real-time quote is around 4013.
1. Short in batches in the 4030–4040 rebound zone, stop loss at 4050, targets 4005–3988, hold if broken downward.
2. Go long first on a pullback to the 3983–3977 zone, stop loss at 4070, targets 4000–4025, hold if broken upward.
3. Early-week pending order: Sell limit at 4065, stop loss at 4080, targets 4015–3975–3945.
During Monday's Asian session, WTI crude oil opened lower and extended losses to 2%, trading around $101.19 per barrel. On the news front, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined: The bullish side comes from OPEC+ pausing production increases for a second consecutive month, keeping November quotas unchanged, while ongoing Middle East conflicts continue to constrain actual supply releases, with most member countries still producing below targets. The bearish side stems from the Fed's policy meeting approaching this week, with the market pricing in roughly a 90% probability of no action in October, but relatively strong December rate hike expectations, putting pressure on oil prices through the dollar interest rate outlook.
Crude oil's 1-hour MA60 moving average converges with the 1-hour Bollinger Band lower rail at the 100.1 level, while the 4-hour MA30 moving average converges with the SAR parabolic indicator at 99.6, and the daily MA10 moving average sits at 99.4. Today's approach is to treat the 100.1–99.4 range with a bullish bias first. As long as it is not broken downward, prioritize the bullish view. If broken, refer to the 97.6 and 96.5 levels.
On the resistance side, refer to today's gap-down high of 102.4. If broken upward, look for continued gains toward the 1-hour Bollinger Band at 103.8. I believe the short-term pullback has not changed the trend. Note that the weekly Bollinger Band upper rail has shifted up from last week's 105.6 to 107.2. Both daily and weekly chart period Bollinger Bands and moving averages are in bullish divergence. In terms of operations, I recommend prioritizing long positions on pullbacks, and shorting only when encountering resistance at highs.
Crude Oil Reference Strategy
Current real-time quote is around 100.8.
1. Go long on a pullback to the 100.2–99.6 zone, stop loss at 99, targets 101.2–102.4, hold if broken upward targeting 103.8.
2. Pending long orders at 97.7 and 96.5, stop loss at 95, targets 100–103.8–106.5.
Comments