Gold market review and key views: Last week, London spot gold closed at $4,194 per ounce (up 1.2% week-on-week), while domestic AU9999 gold closed at 904 yuan per gram (up 0.1% week-on-week).
After climbing to a historic high of 5.36%, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen back for several consecutive days recently, easing the interest rate pressure on gold. Strong demand at the 30-year Treasury auction was the direct trigger. On October 8, the US Treasury issued $22 billion of 30-year Treasuries, with a awarded yield of 5.618%, lower than the level expected at the bidding deadline, and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.54 times, higher than the average of 2.41 times over the previous six auctions. On the geopolitical front, Trump posted on social media that the US and Iran are engaged in "productive" consultations and explicitly promised not to launch an attack on Iran at "any time" before the November 3 midterm elections, easing inflation concerns driven by oil prices. After the September nonfarm payrolls "slammed on the brakes," October rate hike expectations fell sharply, and this week the focus is on inflation data. September nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of 90,000, while July-August were revised down by a combined 60,000. The September nonfarm payrolls report marginally reduced the urgency for the Fed to raise rates continuously, and combined with recent remarks from core Fed officials who are not inclined toward consecutive rate hikes, the market now expects only a 20% chance of a rate hike in October. The US September CPI to be released on October 14 this week may be the final word on the probability of an October rate hike.
The central bank gold buying trend continues. By the end of September, the People's Bank of China's gold reserves reached 77.47 million ounces (about 2,409.59 tonnes), an increase of 740,000 ounces (about 23.02 tonnes) month-on-month, marking the 23rd consecutive month of gold purchases, with the single-month increase being the highest in nearly three years. The World Gold Council's third-quarter report showed that global gold ETFs saw cumulative inflows of about $31 billion, with total holdings increasing by 211 tonnes, both setting quarterly historical records. Regional divergence was significant: Europe led with inflows of $14 billion, of which the UK contributed $7.5 billion, bringing its year-to-date total to $9.5 billion, temporarily ranking first globally; North America saw inflows of $12 billion, its first quarterly net inflow since 2026; Asia saw inflows of $4.9 billion, with China continuing to lead. Notably, although the September gold price decline dragged global gold ETF assets under management down 7% month-on-month, single-month inflows still reached about $10 billion, indicating that investors are viewing the price pullback as a strategic entry window rather than a signal to reduce holdings. Looking ahead, international gold prices have currently reclaimed the important $4,200 mark, and the focus is on whether the market can form a "W"-shaped double bottom. On the capital flow side, global gold ETFs have still shown net inflows during gold's recent pullback, and combined with strong support from global central bank gold purchases, the capital flow outlook for the gold market is favorable. In the medium to long term, the structural logic supporting gold has not been shaken by this round of adjustment. US national debt has exceeded $40 trillion, the fiscal deficit in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2026 reached $1.8 trillion, and net interest expense rose to $963 billion, up 14% year-on-year, accounting for about 21.5% of fiscal revenue. The sustainability of US fiscal policy, the ongoing trend of global central bank gold purchases, and the fragmentation of the geopolitical landscape together form a solid foundation for gold's medium- to long-term allocation value. Key signals for gold investment in the coming week: (1) US September inflation data; (2) progress in the US-Iran situation.
Allocation tools: Hua'an Gold series products. For investors hoping to allocate to gold through public funds, Hua'an Fund has established a relatively complete gold product matrix:
Gold ETF Hua'an (518880): closely tracks domestic gold spot prices and is an efficient tool for on-exchange investors to allocate to gold;
Gold ETF Feeder A (000216)/Feeder C (000217)/Feeder I (022653): provides convenient subscription and redemption channels for off-exchange investors, especially those with regular investment and medium- to long-term allocation needs (Class A is suitable for long-term holding, Class C for short- to medium-term trading, and Class I for short-term trading);
Gold Stock ETF Hua'an (159321): focuses on listed companies in the upstream gold industry chain, and while gold prices rise, it may capture the elasticity of gold stocks, making it suitable for investors seeking higher elasticity within gold assets.
Fund fee notes: Regarding ETF subscription/redemption fees, when investors handle cash subscription or redemption, the sales institution may charge a certain fee/commission at a standard not exceeding 0.5%, which includes related fees charged by exchanges, registration and settlement institutions, etc. Gold ETF Feeder A (000216): for a single subscription amount M < 1 million, subscription fee rate 0.60%; for a single subscription amount 1 million ≤ M < 3 million, subscription fee rate 0.40%; for a single subscription amount 3 million ≤ M < 5 million, subscription fee rate 0.15%; for a single subscription amount M ≥ 5 million, subscription fee 1,000 yuan per transaction. Redemption: holding period Y < 7 days, redemption fee rate 1.50%; holding period 7 days ≤ Y < 1 year, redemption fee rate 0.10%; holding period Y ≥ 1 year, redemption fee rate 0.00%. Management fee rate 0.50%; custody fee rate 0.10%. Gold ETF Feeder C (000217): subscription fee rate 0.00%. Redemption: holding period Y < 7 days, redemption fee rate 1.50%; holding period 7 days ≤ Y < 30 days, redemption fee rate 0.10%; holding period Y ≥ 30 days, redemption fee rate 0.00%. Management fee rate 0.50%; custody fee rate 0.10%; sales service fee 0.35%. Gold ETF Feeder I (022653): subscription fee rate 0.00%. Redemption: holding period Y < 7 days, redemption fee rate 1.50%; holding period Y ≥ 7 days, redemption fee rate 0.00%. Management fee rate 0.50%; custody fee rate 0.10%; sales service fee 0.10%.
Risk warning: Investors are advised to pay attention to the specific risks of investing in gold-themed funds, such as gold market volatility risk, the risk that fund portfolio returns deviate from domestic gold spot price returns, and investment risks in the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot market. Gold Stock ETF is an equity fund that mainly invests in constituent stocks of the underlying index and alternative constituent stocks, and has risk-return characteristics similar to the underlying index. Gold Stock ETF may invest in stocks eligible for Stock Connect, and will face foreign exchange risk and specific risks arising from differences in investment environment, investment targets, market systems, and trading rules under the Stock Connect mechanism. The fund management company does not guarantee that the above funds will definitely be profitable, nor does it guarantee minimum returns. Past performance of a fund cannot predict future returns. China's fund industry has operated for a relatively short time and cannot reflect all stages of stock market development. Markets carry risks, investment requires caution, and investors bear their own risks. Before investing in a fund, investors should carefully read fund legal documents such as the Fund Contract and Prospectus, fully understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund product, and, on the basis of understanding the product and listening to the suitability opinions of the sales institution, make independent decisions on fund investment according to their own risk tolerance, investment horizon, and investment objectives, and choose suitable fund products. MACD golden cross signals have formed, and these stocks are performing well!
Comments