Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
On July 23, fundamental analysis for gold: On Thursday during the early Asian session, spot gold was trading near $4,126 per ounce. On Wednesday, July 22, spot gold prices closed strongly higher by 1.3% at $4,129.79 per ounce, having earlier touched a two-week high of $4,165.92. August gold futures surged even more, gaining 1.9% to settle at $4,151.90. This rally was driven by a combination of a slightly weaker US dollar, technical buying, and a sharp escalation in Middle East geopolitical tensions, pushing gold into the spotlight. Investors are holding their breath ahead of next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision, while inflation concerns fueled by oil prices soaring to near six-week highs have further amplified market risk aversion.
Technical analysis for gold: From a longer-term daily chart perspective, gold's bullish run is not yet complete, with the price firmly positioned above the middle Bollinger Band, indicating further upside potential. The bullish target for the month remains unchanged, with gold likely to test the $4,200 high. Examining the technical charts, gold on Tuesday broke decisively above the short-term downtrend line in place since July 6 with a solid bullish candlestick, also reclaiming the key psychological $4,040 level—a significant signal of recovering bullish confidence. Following three consecutive daily gains, bulls remain in charge today. On the daily timeframe, gold has formed a strong pattern, breaking through several short-term moving averages in one move and re-establishing a foothold above the crucial 20-day moving average support. This has firmly established the daily bullish structure, with ample short-term rebound momentum suggesting the uptrend is likely to continue.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has successfully broken above the resistance of the previous channel's upper boundary, further strengthening the bullish trend. The price is currently experiencing a brief consolidation and pullback near a key resistance area, which is a normal corrective phase following a breakout. Once this short-term resistance is effectively breached, the subsequent upside for the bulls will be opened further, potentially targeting the key objective near the $4,200 acceleration zone. On the hourly chart cycle, gold has fully entered a standard ascending channel, with moving averages in a bullish alignment and support levels shifting higher. The short-term market's center of gravity continues to rise, confirming an overall bullish-dominated pattern. For intraday trading, there is no need to guess the top or consider short positions; adhering to a trend-following approach is sufficient. Intraday support is watched at $4,070-4,080, while resistance is focused in the $4,180-4,200 zone. In summary, for today's short-term gold trading strategy, the primary approach should be to buy on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary tactic. Key short-term resistance above is at the $4,180-4,210 area, while key short-term support below lies at $4,100-4,070.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends:
Fundamental analysis for crude oil: In early Asian trading on Thursday, July 23 (Beijing time), with the ongoing escalation of hostilities between the US and Iran and heightened supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices closed on Wednesday at their highest levels since June 11. Brent crude rose 2.72% to $93.84 per barrel (having reached $95.44 intraday), while US crude gained 2.29% to $86.48 per barrel. The primary drivers were the continued escalation of US-Iran hostilities and increased supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Concurrently, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and declared a maritime blockade, opening a new front. This led five oil tankers to divert in the Red Sea to avoid the strait.
Technical analysis for crude oil: From a daily chart structure perspective, crude oil has recently concluded its previous consolidation phase, with the price reclaiming territory above key moving average areas, indicating a gradual shift towards a stronger short-term trend. The current price is trading above $84, with market momentum bolstered by supply risk concerns. Technical indicators show that bullish forces are recovering, although momentum for chasing the rally may slow as the price approaches previous resistance zones. Resistance above is watched near $86; a decisive break could lead to a further test of the $87.00 area. Initial support below is seen at $82.50, followed by the key psychological $80.00 level. Overall, the daily chart still leans towards a choppy uptrend, but attention must be paid to changes in geopolitical risk news and their impact on price volatility.
On the 4-hour chart, crude oil has formed a consecutive rebound structure, with short-term moving averages gradually trending higher and the price maintaining its position within a high consolidation range. The MACD indicator shows strengthening bullish momentum, although there is potential for a technical pullback following the recent short-term gains. If oil prices can stabilize above $84, the market may continue its attempt to break the $86 resistance. A break below $82.50 could see a retest of support near $81. The current 4-hour chart action shows bulls holding a certain advantage, but the sustainability of the rally will depend on whether supply risks continue to intensify. In summary, for today's crude oil trading strategy, the primary approach is to buy on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary tactic. Key short-term resistance above is at the $90.0-92.0 area, while key short-term support below lies at $86.0-84.0.
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