As discussions around AI safety intensify and the prospects for foundational model development face fresh skepticism, Morgan Stanley has highlighted that SpaceX offers a comparatively stronger defensive profile within an AI-centric stock portfolio. The firm continues to back the company with an Overweight rating and a $300 price target.
The broader AI trade has been under pressure lately, fueled by rising calls for self-imposed limits on foundational model research. According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, SpaceX has demonstrated greater resilience over the past week and month when compared to key AI peers like Meta, NVIDIA, and Broadcom. Analyst Adam Jonas points out that SpaceX is not a pure-play AI company; its diversified business structure provides a cushion for the stock during periods of AI-driven sentiment swings.
The analyst also notes that at the current share price of roughly $148, the implied sales multiple for the enterprise AI segment is only in the low single digits, with the value of its orbital AI option nearly priced at zero. This dynamic presents investors with a window to reassess SpaceX on the basis of its superior underlying fundamentals.
Business Diversification: Space and Connectivity Segments Offer a Buffer
Morgan Stanley argues that SpaceX is far from a conventional AI company. The analyst characterizes it as a manufacturing and infrastructure enterprise that converts energy into intelligence at scale through a vertically integrated stack of space launch, satellite communications, and computing capabilities.
A significant portion of SpaceX's near-term catalysts are independent of AI industry momentum. The 14th Starship flight, slated for September 22, and the 15th flight, expected between mid-October and early November, represent standalone events. Meanwhile, the Starlink connectivity business is experiencing over 100% year-over-year user growth and serves as the primary cash flow engine in the current phase—untethered from overall AI capital expenditure trends.
From a valuation breakdown perspective, of the approximately $2 trillion total market cap, the analyst estimates that roughly three-quarters of the value is driven by the space and connectivity operations. Using a sum-of-the-parts valuation model, the space segment corresponds to about $8 per share, while the connectivity arm accounts for around $118 per share. At the existing share price, the market assigns an implied valuation to the AI business that is merely about 10% of Morgan Stanley's own estimate of $183 per share for that segment.
Long-Term Option: Orbital AI Infrastructure Post-2030
Morgan Stanley points out that long-term holders of SpaceX are effectively betting on the commercialization of space-based AI infrastructure, a thesis whose major inflection point is likely only to emerge after 2030. This represents a long-dated optionality value.
In terms of nearer-term strategic moves, SpaceX's collaboration with Tesla is centered on robotics, while partnerships with NVIDIA and Intel target domestic semiconductor manufacturing. These ventures are also long-term options in adjacent sectors, and the market has essentially not yet priced them in.
Financial Flexibility: Ample Cash and Adjustable Capex
On the balance sheet front, as of the end of the second quarter of 2026, SpaceX holds roughly $10 billion in total cash, with net cash around $6.1 billion. Morgan Stanley anticipates future debt financing to keep the debt/EBITDA ratio in the 1.5x-2x range, but stresses that management retains considerable flexibility in both the timing and scale of capital expenditures. The company will only borrow and advance spending as long as the business plan supports it.
AI Compute Elasticity: Each 1GW Addition Could Boost Share Price by $27
Morgan Stanley's sensitivity analysis on AI compute capacity indicates that every additional 1GW of rated compute—calculated using a $50 per watt cost, a 70% incremental margin, and a 10x EBITDA capitalization—could contribute roughly $27 to the share price. That is equivalent to a 15% to 20% upside from current levels. The firm’s forecast for AI compute by the end of fiscal 2027 stands at 4.9GW, against the company’s own target of "close to 10GW." Should the company meet or exceed its internal goals, the potential upside for the stock is likely to surpass the baseline projection.
The Musk Factor: A Premium for Execution in Times of Crisis
In its fifth rationale, Morgan Stanley explicitly identifies Elon Musk himself as a source of defensiveness. The report notes that, based on two decades of observation of the SpaceX CEO's management approach, he tends not to waste a good crisis. Citing historical cases, the report highlights how Tesla delivered outstanding operational and share price performance during the "production hell" of 2018-2019 and through the 2020-2021 pandemic period, both under significant market uncertainty. Morgan Stanley asserts that in the current environment of dampened AI sentiment, a management team with exceptional market insight and execution capability could enable SpaceX to stand out from its peers.
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