UAE crude supply has rebounded swiftly to historic highs, yet the recovery in natural gas, petrochemical production and fuel inventories is lagging badly, leaving the energy system squeezed by both damaged supply chains and inadequate reserves.
According to International Energy Agency (IEA) data, UAE oil supply reached a record peak of 5.3 million barrels per day in September, loadings at Fujairah port climbed to 2.62 million barrels per day, and the Ruwais refinery resumed full-capacity operations by late August. However, energy analyst Karl Miller noted in an assessment published on October 22 that natural gas output, petrochemical feedstock supply and fuel inventories remain far below pre-war levels, and the rebound in crude exports has not delivered a full recovery of the energy system.
On one hand, the gradual repair of damaged facilities, combined with the UAE's exit from OPEC in May that freed it from previous production quotas, has driven crude supply higher; on the other, the gas and petrochemical chains remain constrained by feedstock shortages, and Fujairah fuel inventories have shrunk sharply. Restored crude export capacity does not equal a restored ability to withstand supply disruptions.
Output bounces off the bottom, but war damage lingers
Earlier this year, the UAE energy system suffered a series of attacks that hit crude production, gas processing, refining, petrochemicals and power support facilities. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, UAE crude and condensate output fell from about 4 million barrels per day at the start of the year to an average of 2.4 million barrels per day between March and May, a decline of 40%.
The damaged facilities span multiple critical links in the energy industry: the Ruwais refining complex caught fire and halted production starting March 10; the Shah sour gas processing plant and the Habshan gas complex were attacked in succession; and power support facilities at the Borouge petrochemical plant, Emirates Global Aluminium's smelter and the Barakah nuclear power plant were also affected.
Fujairah port, which handles shipments bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, was hit as well. According to Reuters tallies, the port has been attacked at least 19 times since the conflict broke out. In the week of March 16, port loadings fell to 440,000 barrels per day; after another attack on May 4, refined product exports nearly ground to a halt, with only one refined product tanker departing over roughly the following month.
As some facilities were repaired and crude shipments resumed, UAE supply data rebounded quickly. But rising crude output does not mean the entire energy chain has recovered, as gas processing, petrochemical production and refined product exports remain constrained by damaged facilities and supply chain bottlenecks.
Gas and petrochemicals still shackled by feedstock shortages
ADNOC Gas, the gas subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, reported in its second-quarter results that domestic gas production fell 32.5% year on year, export liquids output including LPG and naphtha dropped 54.5%, equity LNG output fell 63%, and LNG sales volume declined about 71%. Over the same period, revenue fell 39%, EBITDA dropped 47%, net profit declined 52%, and quarterly revenue shrank by about $2.3 billion.
Notably, the company's asset availability reached 99.9% in the second quarter, yet actual asset utilization fell from 80% to 54%. This means equipment can run, but there is not enough feedstock to sustain full-capacity production. For the energy industry, repairing facilities is only the first step; restoring feedstock supply and upstream-downstream coordination is the key to a full production restart.
As of August 10, Habshan gas supply had recovered to about 85%; although the Borouge plant completed repairs by the end of June, it could only operate at about 60% utilization because of insufficient feedstock. Emirates Global Aluminium's smelter had restarted only a quarter of its reduction cells by the end of August and is not expected to fully recover until early 2027.
These conditions show that the crude export rebound has not yet driven a full recovery of the energy economy. Gas processing, petrochemical production and aluminum smelting depend on their own facilities and supply chains, and continued bottlenecks in key links will cap the recovery of overall output.
Inventories down 65%: the cushion behind high output is thinning
On October 19, Fujairah refined product inventories fell to 7.25 million barrels, down 65% from about 20.7 million barrels before the war. Gasoline and naphtha stocks dropped 87%, fuel oil fell 53%, and diesel and jet fuel declined 23%; during October, inventories also fell 18% in a single week.
Fujairah is a major global hub for ship bunkering and oil product trading. A sharp drawdown in inventories not only affects local fuel supply but also weakens the port's ability to cope with transport disruptions and sudden demand. Record supply flows do not mean inventory stockpiles have recovered in tandem. Production and exports reflect current supply capacity, while inventories determine how long the system can hold out when supply is suddenly cut off.
Miller laid out an extreme scenario: if the export channel lost 1 million barrels per day while available tank capacity was only 10 million barrels, a sustained export disruption could force oil fields to shut down in about ten days absent other buffers. This is a stress test based on specific assumptions, not a forecast of actual shutdown timing, but it reveals the cascade of risks that insufficient inventories can amplify.
The transport capacity bypassing the Strait of Hormuz also has limits. The ADCOP pipeline running from Habshan to Fujairah has a designed throughput of 1.5 million barrels per day and a maximum of about 1.8 million barrels per day, while ADNOC claims production capacity of 4.85 million barrels per day. A second pipeline planned by the UAE is expected to come online in 2027, and until then the existing pipeline remains unable to fully offset the risk of a severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude exports are back, but has energy resilience recovered?
The UAE's September oil supply hit a record high, mainly thanks to the gradual repair of damaged facilities and the removal of previous production quotas after leaving OPEC. But if part of the supply growth comes at the cost of drawing down inventories, the output rebound may also come at the price of a further narrowing of buffer space.
Regional refined product and LPG exports remain far below pre-war levels. In September, regional refined product exports were about 1.9 million barrels per day versus about 4.7 million barrels per day before the war; LPG exports were about 670,000 barrels per day versus about 1.5 million barrels per day before the war. The clear recovery in crude shipments has not brought other energy products back in step.
Miller noted that a complete public database is lacking, making it impossible to precisely verify how much of the UAE energy system remains damaged. The substantial recovery at the Ruwais refinery and on the crude export side should not be overlooked, but gas output, petrochemical feedstock supply, fuel inventories and bypass transport capacity still expose clear weaknesses.
The real test is not whether the UAE can set a production record, but how long it can hold out when the next shock arrives. Before the war, Fujairah held about 20 million barrels of refined product inventories, and now only about 7 million barrels remain; the gas and petrochemical chains have not fully recovered, and existing bypass pipeline capacity is limited. The UAE has restored the speed of its crude supply, but it has not yet restored its ability to withstand the next shock.
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