Cinda Securities released a research report noting that POP MART (09992) has announced a share repurchase. On January 19, 2026, the company repurchased 1.4 million shares for HKD 251 million, with a repurchase price per share ranging from HKD 177.7 to HKD 181.2. The firm forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be RMB 13.51 billion, RMB 17.90 billion, and RMB 21.61 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.0X, 13.6X, and 11.3X, maintaining a "Buy" rating.
Cinda Securities' primary views are as follows: The domestic market is experiencing an upward trend. POP MART boasts a large and highly loyal user base, with a diversified IP matrix that maintains strong popularity. The contributions from MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, CRYBABY, and DIMOO are balanced, while the popularity of the XING XING REN IP is rising rapidly. The company's recent strategy of frequent product releases has directly contributed to a rational correction in the secondary market prices. This initiative represents an active adjustment of production capacity and supply by the company, steering the market towards a supply-demand equilibrium and reclaiming pricing power for its products. Rational secondary market prices help build a healthy commercial ecosystem based on genuine consumer demand, which is beneficial for expanding the user base and accumulating brand value in the long term.
The overseas market holds considerable potential. Many global markets are still in their early stages, with current channel density significantly lower than in China, indicating strong potential for future channel expansion. However, challenges exist, including shorter IP lifecycles, relatively weaker channel capacity, and dependency on single IPs. The company is consciously increasing offline supply globally, guiding consumers from online to offline channels and encouraging in-store pickups. Simultaneously, as POP MART's supply chain is concentrated in Asia, substantial year-on-year growth in the American market has created structural constraints. The company currently needs to systematically address issues related to its supply chain and logistics, product and channel structures, and the configuration of local teams. Prioritizing operational improvements before focusing heavily on IP product deployment is more conducive to the company's long-term overseas development. The United States, as a core global consumer market for trendy toys, possesses immense growth potential. A short-term strategy focused on building operational capabilities, coupled with a long-term strategy driven by IP momentum, aligns with the company's logic for sustained overseas market development.
Sales momentum tracking: According to Google Trends data, the search popularity for POP MART's core IP "Labubu" experienced a significant peak around Christmas and has since remained above its daily average. As the end of December approached, the popularity saw a slight uptick.
Risk factors include weak consumer spending, intensifying industry competition, and new product launches falling short of expectations.
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