As Wall Street exclaims that gold prices may not be at their peak, international gold prices have reached new highs, with COMEX gold pushing towards $4,400 per ounce. This fervent market activity has spread to the A-shares market, where today (October 17th) gold stocks led a major surge, with the leading non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) seeing its intra-day price rise by over 2%.
Among the constituent stocks, Shengxin Lithium Energy climbed by more than 8%, while Western Region Gold Co., Ltd.
On the policy front, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments jointly issued the "Non-ferrous Metal Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)", marking a new phase of 'systemic support + structural prosperity' for the industry. Additionally, the Federal Reserve officially launched a new round of interest rate cuts in its September meeting, suggesting a potential turning point for global liquidity conditions. Industry insiders note that the resonance of policy and cyclical factors presents new opportunities for non-ferrous metals:
1. Monetary Attributes: "Dollar Anchor" Softens, Reshaping Non-ferrous Metal Pricing The foundation of this current non-ferrous metal bull market is deeply rooted in the broader macro context of a long-term re-evaluation of the global monetary system and dollar credit. The continuous oversupply of global currency, the trend of weakening dollar dominance, and the initiation of the Fed's rate cut cycle will continue to drive up prices for precious metals like gold. Coupled with the growing demand for strategic metal resource reserves under de-globalization, non-ferrous metals are poised to be a driving force in the current commodities bull market. As the "anchor" of global asset pricing, fluctuations in dollar credit are most directly reflected in gold, but they extend beyond gold itself. Recently, non-ferrous metals, represented by gold, silver, and copper, have exhibited robust market trends. Industry experts suggest that the key to understanding this round of non-ferrous market dynamics lies in moving beyond the simplistic framework of "cyclical commodities" to view non-ferrous metals from the perspective of "hard currency". In an era of declining global interest rates, their value anchor is subtly shifting from short-term industrial supply and demand to long-term monetary credit.
2. Commodity Attributes: Limited Supply + Released Demand Leads to Balanced Supply-Demand (1) On the supply side, the number of newly discovered copper mines worldwide is limited, with insufficient capital expenditure and slow capacity release for refined copper. The accident at Grasberg, the second-largest copper mine in the world (Indonesia), may lead to a sharp tightening of global copper supply expectations in the next two years, pushing copper prices upward. Meanwhile, domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity nearing its ceiling and overseas expansions constrained by energy and infrastructure limitations have resulted in a global electrolytic aluminum supply growth of less than 3%. Small metals like molybdenum, antimony, and gallium face issues of resource exhaustion and insufficient investment. (2) On the demand side, a new engine driven by AI and renewable energy is strongly starting up. Fields such as data center construction, power infrastructure upgrades (like grid reconstruction), electric vehicles, energy storage, photovoltaics, 5G, and aerospace are creating a rigid pull for copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths. Policies also emphasize "expanding high-strength aluminum materials, high-conductivity copper cables, and magnesium alloy components," which is expected to promote an upgrade in bulk metal consumption. Technological innovation is leading the way in materials. Fifteen years ago, real estate and infrastructure were the core driving forces of China's economy, accounting for more than 30% and 50% of the demand structures for copper and aluminum, respectively. However, with the structural transformation of the economy in recent years, the share of demand from real estate and infrastructure has significantly declined, while the renewable energy sector now contributes over 15% to copper demand and over 20% to aluminum demand. This indicates a significant change in the driving forces of industrial demand.
Looking ahead, industry insiders believe that non-ferrous metals, as globally priced commodities, will be the mainstay of the current commodities bull market. On one hand, propelled by mid-to-long-term capital expenditure cycles, the non-ferrous sector has entered a long-term price-upward cycle amid supply constraints. On the other hand, the sustained upturn in global manufacturing investment cycles and the de-globalization trend driving strategic metal resource reserve demand will continuously boost the demand for non-ferrous metals. Additionally, the current expectations of a macroeconomic rebound in China further reinforce this logic. With multiple logical factors converging, non-ferrous metals may become the core category in this slow bull market, making industrial non-ferrous metals, small metals, and gold particularly attractive over the next one to two years.
【Future Industrial "Metal Heart," Modern Industry "Gold Blood"】 Different non-ferrous metals exhibit varying levels of prosperity, rhythms, and driving points; thus, differentiation is inevitable. If one is optimistic about the non-ferrous metals sector, a relatively straightforward approach is to adopt a comprehensive coverage strategy to better capture the beta trends across the sector. The leading non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) and its connected funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141), which passively track the CSI Non-ferrous Metal Index—composed of copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium with respective weights of 27.6%, 14.5%, 13.1%, 10.4%, and 8.4%—can mitigate risks compared to investing in a single metal sector and are suitable for inclusion in an investment portfolio.
Risk Warning: The leading non-ferrous metals ETF and its connected funds passively track the CSI Non-ferrous Metal Index, which has a base date of December 31, 2013, and was launched on July 13, 2015. The index's returns over the past five complete years are: 2020, +35.84%; 2021, +35.89%; 2022, -19.22%; 2023, -10.43%; 2024, +2.96%. The constituent stocks of the index are adjusted according to the index's compilation rules, and past performance does not predict future results. The stocks mentioned merely serve as examples, and descriptions of individual stocks do not constitute any form of investment advice, nor do they represent the positions and trading directions of any funds managed by the administrator. The administrator assesses the risk level of the fund as R3 - medium risk, suitable for balanced (C3) investors and above, with recommendations for appropriateness to be based on the sales institution's advice. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to stocks, comments, predictions, charts, indicators, theories, or any form of expression) is for reference only, and investors should be responsible for any investment decisions made autonomously. Furthermore, any opinions, analyses, or forecasts expressed herein do not constitute any form of investment advice to readers, nor do they hold any liability for direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this article's content. Fund investments carry risks, past performance does not guarantee future returns, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not assure the fund's performance; investors should exercise caution in fund investments.
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