CITIC SEC has released a research report stating that the successful inaugural flight of the Long March 10B carrier rocket on July 10, 2026, which achieved the world's first controlled maritime net-based recovery of a rocket's first stage, represents a pivotal milestone for China's commercial space industrialization. The success of this reusable launch mission is expected to significantly drive down domestic satellite launch costs, thereby accelerating satellite constellation deployment. The resulting capital expenditures are projected to create substantial investment opportunities. Going forward, the focus should shift to the private reusable commercial rocket sector. It is recommended to monitor the progress in technology validation for recovery systems and the scaling up of satellite manufacturing capacity. Additionally, attention should be paid to the IPO processes of private commercial space enterprises in 2026-2027. CITIC SEC's key views are as follows:
Event Overview
On July 10, 2026, at approximately 12:10 PM, the Long March 10B carrier rocket, developed by the First Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), successfully lifted off from Launch Pad No. 2 at the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site, completing its maiden flight mission. All core objectives of this mission were achieved, not only delivering the payload precisely into orbit but also successfully conducting the world's first engineering validation for the controlled maritime net-based recovery of a rocket's first stage. Approximately six minutes after stage separation, the first stage accurately returned to a predetermined area in the South China Sea. It was stably captured by the "Pioneer," China's first maritime net-based rocket recovery platform, using a giant flexible net. The rocket body remained structurally intact and in good recovery condition, marking a 100% success for this inaugural mission. The flawless execution of this first flight not only represents a new breakthrough for the Long March rocket family but also fills the technological gap for China's high-capacity, orbit-class reusable commercial rockets, officially heralding a new era of large-scale, low-cost launches for China's next-generation commercial space industry.
A Pioneering Recovery Model
Compared to traditional maritime vertical hard-landing recovery methods, the maritime net-based flexible recovery technology is highly innovative. Traditional recovery modes impose extremely high demands on landing precision and platform stability, subjecting the rocket body to significant impact upon landing, which can easily cause structural damage and substantially affect reusability rates and maintenance costs. The flexible net capture technology employed in this mission, utilizing the cushioning structure of the "Pioneer" maritime platform, can effectively dissipate the landing impact force on the first stage. This maximizes the protection of the rocket body structure, propulsion system, and core components, significantly improving recovery success rates and the intact reusability of the rocket. Furthermore, this technology is well-suited to complex maritime conditions, offering greater environmental adaptability and higher recovery fault tolerance, addressing industry pain points where traditional maritime recovery is constrained by waves and insufficient precision.
Industry Transformation
The successful maiden flight of the Long March 10B is a milestone event for China's commercial space industrialization. It is poised to comprehensively reshape the domestic commercial launch industry landscape across three dimensions: cost, capacity, and infrastructure. Firstly, it promises a substantial reduction in space launch costs. The scaled application of reusable rockets enables the repeated use of key components like the core stage and engines, moving away from the high-cost model of expendable rockets. Combined with the advantages of low loss and easier maintenance inherent to maritime net recovery, the per-launch cost for missions such as commercial satellite constellation deployment, commercial space experiments, and low Earth orbit (LEO) constellation launches is expected to drop significantly following batch launches. This will reduce burdens and increase efficiency for commercial space enterprises, stimulating market innovation.
Secondly, it will greatly enhance high-frequency launch capacity. As recovery and reuse technologies mature, rockets no longer need to be manufactured anew for each launch. This enables a "launch-recover-refurbish-relaunch" closed-loop cycle, drastically shortening rocket production and delivery timelines. This better meets the high-density, high-frequency launch demands of current sectors like LEO satellite internet, meteorological remote sensing, and communication/navigation, addressing the bottleneck of insufficient domestic commercial launch capacity.
Thirdly, it advances the commercial space infrastructure system. This mission relied on an integrated commercial launch system comprising the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site, the "Pioneer" maritime recovery platform, and the new reusable carrier rocket. This marks China's commercial space industry's evolution from a singular breakthrough in launch capability to a systematic stage integrating rockets, launch sites, and maritime recovery, solidifying the hardware foundation for the scaled, standardized, and industrialized development of commercial space.
Investment Implications
The breakthrough in controlled recovery technology will lay the groundwork for increased infrastructure investment in the commercial space sector. Against the backdrop of Sino-US technological competition, LEO satellite launches have become another core battleground alongside artificial intelligence. As a vital component of "new infrastructure," the market can afford greater tolerance regarding its business model's path to closure. Currently, SpaceX's Starlink constellation has over 10,000 satellites in orbit, with launches exceeding 3,200 satellites in 2025 alone. In contrast, the cumulative launch numbers for Chinese enterprises are merely 177 and 238 satellites, respectively, indicating a significant gap. The core issue lies in the previously unbroken reusable rocket technology, which kept launch costs high. The success of the Long March 10B reusable launch mission will drive a significant reduction in China's satellite launch costs, accelerating constellation deployment. China's future satellite launch volume has the potential to expand by tens or even hundreds of times, and the resulting capital expenditures will create enormous investment opportunities.
Looking Ahead
For the future, it is advised to: 1) Monitor key launch milestones for private reusable commercial rockets, including company-led recovery technology validations. 2) On the satellite manufacturing front, as reusable technology matures and drives scaled launch volumes, satellite and component manufacturers are poised to benefit first. It is recommended to track their capacity expansion and order fulfillment progress. 3) Attention can be paid to the IPO processes of private commercial space enterprises in 2026-2027, as capital markets can assist in industrial development.
Key Risk Factors
Potential risks include: reusable commercial rocket technology validation falling short of expectations; slower-than-expected progress in the listing of leading commercial space enterprises; and underperformance in the development and application deployment of the LEO satellite industry.
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