Hot columns, self-selected stocks, Data center, Market center, Capital flows, Simulated trading client.
I. Market Review: Policy Supply Guarantee and Demand Negative Feedback Converge, Coking Coal and Coke Retreat Sharply from Highs
September saw the coking coal and coke futures market shift from strength to weakness. This round of decline is the result of a triple convergence of policy, macro, and fundamental factors. First, the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain became explicit: steel mill profitability fell to historical lows, hot metal output retreated from highs, steel mills showed strong resistance to high-priced raw materials, expectations for the first round of coke price cuts heated up, and this was transmitted to the most upstream through rising online auction failure rates and accumulating clean coal inventories at mines. Second, the direct shock came from a shift in supply-side expectations: on September 17, the national level explicitly advanced stable coal production and supply guarantees, with the National Energy Administration and two other departments deploying work on safe and stable coal production and supply, and Shanxi and other regions successively introducing specific measures such as compliant resumption of production at suspended mines and activation of reserve capacity, significantly weakening the core logic of "safety supervision constraining supply" that had supported coking coal for more than three months. Third, overseas liquidity tightening suppressed commodity valuations: on September 17, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023; the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank followed in September, and under the global tightening resonance, the Wen Hua Commodity Index fell 3.86% cumulatively from its mid-September high. The spot market weakened in tandem but was relatively more resilient than futures. On the coking coal side, online auction activity at production areas cooled markedly, with failure rates rising sharply; on September 24, the online auction failure rate for coking coal reached 80.31%, acceptance of high-priced resources deteriorated sharply, and coal mines shifted from raising prices and holding back sales to trading volume at the expense of price. As of September 24, low-sulfur primary coking clean coal in Anze, Linfen fell 110 yuan/ton in a single day to 2,400 yuan/ton, high-sulfur lean coal in Lvliang fell 50 yuan/ton to 2,120 yuan/ton, low-sulfur lean coal in Xiangning was quoted at 2,150 yuan/ton, and medium-sulfur primary coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong dropped to 2,230 yuan/ton; the Mysteel domestic spot comprehensive index for coking coal fell back to around 2,237.8 yuan/ton, down about 40 yuan/ton cumulatively from the early September high. On the coke side, after five cumulative rounds of price increases since mid-August (wet-quenched coke up 450 yuan/ton cumulatively, dry-quenched coke up 495 yuan/ton cumulatively), the market entered a high-level stalemate in mid-to-late September; on September 24, the port quasi-first-grade (wet-quenched) coke trade ex-warehouse price was 1,930 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week-on-week, the factory flat price for quasi-first-grade was 2,220 yuan/ton, and the Lvliang quasi-first-grade dry-quenched metallurgical coke ex-factory quote was 2,300-2,350 yuan/ton, with spot significantly at a premium to the board. As coking plant profitability recovered and supply rebounded while steel mill losses intensified, downstream resistance to the first round of price cuts gradually turned into active price suppression, and the steel-coke game entered a new round of downward contest.
II. Fundamentals: Upstream Inventory Accumulation Pressure Emerges, Negative Feedback Dominates Short-Term Pricing
1. Supply Side: Policy Shifts Toward Stable Production and Supply Guarantee, Domestic Output Elasticity Yet to Be Released, Mongolian Coal Tightens in the Short Term
Domestic supply remains constrained, but marginal pressure is emerging. Mysteel survey data show that as of the week of September 24, the approved capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 68.51%, down 1.2 percentage points week-on-week; average daily raw coal output was 1.539 million tons, down 26,000 tons week-on-week; average daily clean coal output was 659,000 tons, down 2,000 tons week-on-week and down 12.35% year-on-year; the average daily clean coal output of 314 sample coal washing plants was 228,700 tons, up 2.01% week-on-week and down 16.93% year-on-year. The core reason for the slow supply recovery is "resumption without volume recovery": since the suspension and rectification in late May, Shanxi had as many as 192 suspended coal mines involving 260 million tons of capacity; as of late September, 52 coking coal mines in the five cities of Changzhi, Taiyuan, Jinzhong, Lvliang, and Linfen were still suspended, involving 56.6 million tons of capacity; mines that have resumed production are generally producing less than pre-suspension levels due to geological conditions, trial operation cycles, safety supervision constraints, and annual capacity quotas. It should be noted that on September 17, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, and the National Mine Safety Administration jointly issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Safe and Stable Coal Production and Supply, requiring multiple measures to accelerate stable coal production and supply; the market reacted most sharply to Article 4 — allowing over-capacity mines that have completed rectification penalties and passed provincial safety assessments to organize production at a monthly baseline not exceeding approved capacity before the end of the year, which formed a significant expectation gap versus the previous market expectation of "comprehensive suspension of over-capacity mines" and became the direct catalyst for the sharp mid-September board decline. On September 26, Shanxi Province held a provincial promotion meeting on safe and stable coal production and supply, where Governor Lu Dongliang emphasized "fully promoting resumption of work and production, stable production and supply, and accelerating the reversal of the output decline trend" under the premise of strictly guarding the safety bottom line; follow-up statements by major producing provinces further confirmed the policy shift. If compliant resumption of suspended mines and activation of reserve capacity are substantively implemented, and domestic clean coal daily output recovers above 700,000 tons in the fourth quarter, it will exert volume pressure on the futures board. On the import side, Mongolian coal remains at low levels, and seaborne coal provides periodic supplementation, but the structural gap in low-sulfur high-quality primary coking coal is difficult to fully fill. For Mongolian coal, in early-to-mid September, the average daily number of vehicles passing through the Ganqimaodu port was only 627, briefly falling to 531 on September 19, far below the equilibrium level of 1,000; supervisory zone inventory at the port fell below 1.8 million tons, at a relatively low level for the year. On Mid-Autumn Festival day, the three major China-Mongolia ports closed for one day, and the National Day closure arrangement has not yet been announced (7 days of closure in the same period of 2025); based on the current outbound speed, port inventory may decline further after the holiday, which is an important support preventing the board from falling deeply. In terms of prices, Ganqimaodu Mongolian 5 clean coal fell from 2,019 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1,963 yuan/ton, and Mongolian 5 raw coal fell from 1,650 yuan/ton to 1,635 yuan/ton. On seaborne coal, China's metallurgical coal imports in August were 13.1 million tons, up 29% year-on-year; the calculated import profit for Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal once reached 329 yuan/ton, the import window remained open, and the CFR for Australian mid-volatile hard coking coal fell back to 258 USD/ton. Overall, Mongolian coal customs clearance remains low, and holiday closures will further lower port inventory, and the import side is not yet sufficient to reverse the domestic supply-tightening pattern. On the coke side, the fifth round of price increases landing, combined with the gradual digestion of earlier high-priced coking coal resources and a decline in the average cost of coal charged, significantly restored coking plant profitability; on September 24, the average per-ton coke profit of independent coking plants nationwide was 78 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton month-on-month, rebounding by more than 200 yuan/ton cumulatively from -127 yuan/ton on August 28, and the industry as a whole moved from comprehensive losses into broadly thin profits. Profit recovery directly drove supply release: in the week of September 24, the full-sample capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 70.16%, up 2.31 percentage points week-on-week (up 5.14 percentage points month-on-month), and average daily coke output was 602,500 tons, up 19,700 tons month-on-month; combined with the average daily coking output of 472,600 tons from 247 steel mills, up 600 tons month-on-month, total market average daily coke output rebounded to about 1.075 million tons, up about 1.9% month-on-month. Against the backdrop of hot metal peaking and falling back, coke supply shifted from tight to loose, and the previous support logic of "low inventory + production restrictions" for spot is weakening, with directional downside risk to the price center now greater than upward elasticity.
2. Demand Side: Hot Metal Retreats from Highs, Deep Steel Mill Losses Suppress Purchasing and Acceptance Capacity
Direct demand for coking coal depends on coking plant operating levels and restocking willingness. After per-ton coking profits turned positive, production enthusiasm recovered, and the raw material side shifted from passive destocking to moderate restocking. Inventory data show that as of the week of September 24, total coking coal inventory of the full sample of independent coking plants was 10.0756 million tons, up 168,500 tons week-on-week; coking coal inventory of 230 samples was 8.458 million tons, up 174,500 tons week-on-week. However, available days for coking coal were 12.6 days, down 0.21 days week-on-week rather than up, indicating that the inventory increase mainly came from rigid-demand restocking after output recovery, not from increased proactive stockpiling enthusiasm. Considering rising expectations for the first round of coke price cuts, declining acceptance of high-priced raw material coal by coking plants, and the continued historical high of 40%-70% online auction failure rates at production areas, coking plants' procurement strategy has shifted to price-suppressed purchasing on demand, significantly weakening the marginal pull on coking coal prices. The key variable for future coking coal demand lies in the sustainability of coking margins; if coke price cuts land and per-ton coking profit falls back below the break-even line, coking plants will be forced to restrict production again, and coking coal demand will face contraction once more. On the steel mill side, the negative feedback chain is self-reinforcing. Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills shows the profitability rate has fallen to 6.93%, within the low range for the year and historically, with more than 90% of steel enterprises in a loss-making state. Under sustained loss pressure, the China Iron and Steel Association recently advocated self-disciplined production control by steel enterprises; on September 22, the CISA Raw Materials Work Committee and the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association held the third coal-steel industry exchange mechanism meeting in 2026, promoting broader application of floating values to coking coal long-term contract pricing, reflecting steel mills' demands for profit from upstream. In terms of output, in the week of September 24, average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3566 million tons, down 19,700 tons week-on-week, down 9,400 tons from the same period last month, and down 67,000 tons year-on-year; blast furnace capacity utilization fell to 88.49%. The decline in hot metal is currently still moderate, with the absolute level remaining above 2.35 million tons, so rigid consumption of coke has not disappeared, which is an important reason why the coke board fell deeply but spot has been slow to cut prices. The "Golden September" was lackluster; if terminal demand seasonally declines after National Day and steel mill losses are not repaired, hot metal still has room to fall, creating a marginal drag on coke and even coking coal demand. On terminal finished steel, weekly output of the five major steel varieties was 7.8 million tons, down 144,600 tons month-on-month, of which rebar output was 1.6535 million tons, down 87,200 tons month-on-month, the lowest for the same period in nearly four years; social inventory of the five major steel varieties was 10.9757 million tons, down 470,900 tons week-on-week, and steel mill inventory was 3.8281 million tons, down 86,500 tons week-on-week, with destocking accelerating. In terms of apparent consumption, rebar apparent consumption was 2.0885 million tons, up 192,400 tons week-on-week. But it should be noted that this week's consumption high was still down about 5% year-on-year, at the lowest level for the same period in five years, and the daily average transaction volume of construction steel was 94,900 tons, down 0.06% month-on-month, showing the "Golden September" peak season was clearly lackluster, with the rebound in apparent demand coming more from concentrated restocking before the dual holidays rather than genuine terminal consumption. In the medium term, real estate development investment from January to August fell 19.9% year-on-year, and in August new construction area and construction area fell 30.5% and 27.0% year-on-year respectively, continuing the drag from real estate steel demand; although infrastructure has improvement expectations, the number of new projects is limited and difficult to offset the real estate decline. Mysteel expects terminal procurement to decline after the holiday, and demand-side support for raw materials will weaken further.
3. Inventory: Coking Coal Shows "Accumulation" Signals Across Various Links, Coke Pressure Begins to Emerge
Total coking coal inventory rebounded from lows, with obvious upstream accumulation. According to Mysteel surveys, in the week of September 24, clean coal inventory at 523 sample mines was 1.707 million tons, up sharply by 400,000 tons week-on-week, and raw coal inventory was 4.152 million tons, up 88,000 tons week-on-week, with upstream inventory pressure rising significantly, directly reflecting weakening transactions for high-priced resources; in the midstream, port coking coal inventory was 2.82 million tons, down slightly by 150,000 tons week-on-week, with imported resources still being destocked; downstream, total coking coal inventory of the full sample of independent coking plants was 10.0756 million tons, up 168,500 tons week-on-week, with available days at 12.6 days, and coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.489 million tons, up 12,900 tons week-on-week, with available days at 11.92 days, showing limited downstream replenishment; in addition, supervisory zone inventory at Ganqimaodu port was at a relatively low level for the year and is expected to be further destocked during the National Day closure. Overall, coking coal inventory is slowly transferring from upstream mines to midstream and downstream; although the total is still below the same period last year, upstream accumulation means downstream restocking intensity has weakened, and the price transmission chain has loosened. Coke inventory shifted from continuous destocking to slight accumulation, with divergence across links. Full-sample coke inventory at independent coking plants was 681,000 tons, down 18,100 tons week-on-week; with smooth shipments, coking plants still maintained slight destocking, and the absolute level was at a low for the same period in recent years; on the steel mill side, coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 5.806 million tons, up 131,400 tons week-on-week, with available days at 10.5 days, up 0.33 days week-on-week, ending several consecutive weeks of destocking and turning to accumulation; port coke inventory was 1.7417 million tons, down 100,000 tons week-on-week, with traders' willingness to deliver to ports low. Overall, although in-plant inventory at coking plants is low, inventory is accumulating at steel mills; combined with the continued rebound in coking plant output, the bottoming effect of low inventory on prices has weakened compared with earlier.
4. Macro: Domestic Policy Support and Supply Guarantee Go Hand in Hand, Overseas Tightening Suppresses Commodity Valuations
Since September 17, the National Energy Administration and two other departments have successively deployed stable coal production and supply work, explicitly advancing compliant resumption of suspended mines and activation of reserve capacity; on September 22, the China Iron and Steel Association and the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association held the third coal-steel industry exchange mechanism meeting, promoting broader application of medium- and long-term contract performance and long-term contract floating value mechanisms for coking coal, with regulators clearly intending to stabilize raw material prices and repair steel mill profits. Liquidity remained accommodative: on September 24, the People's Bank of China conducted 800 billion yuan of 1-year MLF operations and 51.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos on the same day, with the operation rate unchanged at 1.40%. From September 23 to 25, the meeting between the Chinese and U.S. heads of state reached an eight-point consensus, temporarily easing uncertainty in the external trade environment and restoring some market risk appetite. For coking coal and coke themselves, the domestic policy signal has a far greater loosening effect on the supply side than a boosting effect on demand, making the macro level overall neutral to slightly bearish. However, it should be noted that coal supply guarantee policy implementation has a 1-2 month transmission lag, and it still takes time to verify from policy signal to substantive recovery in clean coal daily output; the short-term impact on the market is mainly reflected in expectations and valuations. Overseas, synchronous tightening by major global central banks has created systemic suppression on bulk commodities. The Federal Reserve's September 17 meeting voted unanimously to raise rates by 25 basis points, lifting the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023. The statement deleted the wording that "inflation mainly reflects supply shocks such as energy," while raising 2026-2027 GDP growth and PCE inflation forecasts, lifting the median year-end federal funds rate forecast to 4.1%, with the dot plot pointing to at least one more hike this year; market data showed the probability of a 25 basis point hike in October once rose to 67.5%. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25% on September 18, the highest since 1995; the European Central Bank completed its second hike of the year on September 10. The global tightening resonance combined with a stronger dollar directly suppressed the valuation of dollar-denominated bulk commodities, with resource products and the demand-weak ferrous complex adjusting more deeply. For coking coal and coke, the impact of overseas rate hikes is mainly reflected in two paths: first, suppressing the overall commodity valuation center through global liquidity tightening and a stronger dollar; second, raising the landed cost of imported seaborne coal and dampening overseas mines' shipping enthusiasm, indirectly affecting the pace of domestic import supplementation, with the former having a more significant short-term impact.
III. Summary: Under the Resonance of Supply Guarantee Expectations and Negative Feedback, Coking Coal and Coke Retreat Under Pressure, Deep Discount Limits Downside
Overall, in September, coking coal and coke completed a logic switch from "supply contraction + cost push" to "policy supply guarantee + demand negative feedback," basically giving back August's rally. The core contradiction in the current market can be summarized as follows: strong expectations for supply-side repair but slow actual realization, clear negative feedback pressure on the demand side but not yet fully released, with the two forming a阶段性 balance at the deep discount on the board. First, coking coal supply constraints are shifting toward marginal relaxation; clean coal daily output at 523 mines and Mongolian coal customs clearance remain low, and the supply reality is still tight, but with the stable production and supply guarantee policy introduced, once resumption and reserve capacity activation land, the gap is expected to converge. Second, demand-side negative feedback is still evolving: steel mill profitability at 6.93%, more than 90% in losses, hot metal falling to 2.3566 million tons, expectations for the first round of coke price cuts heating up, negative feedback continuing to transmit upstream, and mine clean coal inventory surging by 400,000 tons in a single week to 1.707 million tons, in sharp contrast to the full-chain destocking in the first three quarters, a relatively clear downstream resistance signal. Third, the Federal Reserve restarted rate hikes, possibly one to two more this year, with the dollar and real rates suppressing commodity valuations. However, the board has already priced in pessimistic expectations, and coking coal's main contract is at a large discount to the spot warehouse receipt; unless spot sees rapid consecutive declines, further downside space and momentum on the board are relatively limited, while low Ganqimaodu port inventory and tight deliverable resources after the holiday also provide阶段性 support for prices. This week, coking coal and coke are expected to remain weak; the last pre-holiday window for downstream stocking is basically over and speculative demand is fading, but after consecutive declines, technical oversold conditions combined with port closure expectations may limit bears' willingness to continue aggressive selling, so it is not advisable to chase short positions at low levels. In October, focus on five variables: first, the actual pace of resumption at suspended mines in Shanxi and activation of reserve capacity; second, the speed of hot metal output decline and repair of steel mill profitability, with attention to whether hot metal can hold 2.3 million tons; third, the timing and number of rounds for the first coke price cut; fourth, the recovery of Ganqimaodu port customs clearance and the length of the National Day closure; fifth, the October Federal Reserve meeting and domestic incremental policies. If high-frequency data show supply recovery expectations are realized, the board still has downside space; otherwise, downside space is limited. For reference only. Chang'an Futures: Zhang Chen, September 28, 2026. Sina partner platform futures account opening, safe, fast, and guaranteed.
Comments