A recent research report on the non-ferrous metals industry indicates that the metals market is currently in a state of tight supply-demand balance. While supply-demand balance sheets provide useful reference, macroeconomic factors play a more critical role in influencing metal price trends. Key variables such as monetary policy, macroeconomic expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions will be decisive for sector performance. The report provides a comprehensive analysis of precious metals, industrial metals, and energy metals, clarifying investment rationales and recommended stocks for each segment.
In the precious metals sector, expectations of price recovery are strengthening as geopolitical tensions ease and liquidity conditions improve. With the gradual easing of U.S.-Iran-Israel tensions, market risk appetite is expected to rise, coupled with a weakening U.S. dollar index, supporting higher precious metal prices. Fundamentally, stable U.S. core inflation data for March suggests that selling pressure from earlier liquidity shocks has subsided, providing solid support for precious metal valuations. Last week, SHFE gold rose 0.12% to 1,054.02 yuan per gram, COMEX gold increased 1.30% to $4,849.40 per ounce, and spot London gold climbed 1.91% to $4,837.49 per ounce. Silver prices also advanced, with SHFE silver up 5.18% to 19,570 yuan per kilogram, COMEX silver rising 5.82% to $80.93 per ounce, and spot London silver gaining 6.52% to $80.78 per ounce.
Inventory and positioning data also show positive signals. COMEX gold non-commercial net long positions increased by 6,200 contracts, while SPDR gold holdings rose by 263,600 ounces. COMEX silver non-commercial net long positions grew by 100 contracts, and SLV silver holdings increased by 633,700 ounces. Additionally, the People's Bank of China continued to expand its gold reserves, reaching 74.38 million ounces by the end of March—an increase of 160,000 ounces from the previous month—marking the 17th consecutive month of growth, further reinforcing support for precious metals. Recommended stocks include Shandong Gold Mining and Zhongjin Gold, with related targets such as Chifeng Gold, Zhaojin Mining Industry, and Shengda Resources.
In the industrial metals segment, copper and aluminum demonstrate strong performance due to combined supply-demand and macroeconomic support. For copper, geopolitical disruptions and tight supply-demand conditions are driving prices higher. Easing Middle East tensions have helped restore risk appetite and weakened the U.S. dollar, supporting copper prices and related equities. Although Middle East uncertainties may persist, market sensitivity is likely to diminish over time, while tight supply and resilient demand should continue to provide upward momentum. Last week, SHFE copper rose 3.91% to 102,290 yuan per ton, while LME copper increased 3.90% to $13,347.0 per ton.
On the supply side, international copper production faces disruptions due to Middle East tensions, including sulfuric acid supply constraints in the Democratic Republic of Congo, posing risks to hydrometallurgical copper output. In China, smelter maintenance in southern regions has limited arrivals, and policy uncertainties have led some recycled copper producers to reduce output. Demand-wise, operating rates for refined copper rod stood at 77.82% last week, down 2.16 percentage points sequentially. Global visible inventories totaled 1.3232 million tons, a decrease of 27,500 tons from the prior week, indicating continued tight balance. Recommended stocks include JCHX Mining Management, Zijin Mining Group, and Western Mining.
Aluminum benefits from supply gaps both domestically and internationally, with prices expected to remain firm as domestic aluminum ingot inventories approach a turning point. Overseas, large-scale production cuts at Middle Eastern smelters have created a significant supply-demand gap. Domestically, aluminum processing operating rates held steady at 64.7% week-on-week. Social inventories of aluminum ingots increased by 1,000 tons as of last Thursday, with Gongyi showing signs of inventory reversal while Wuxi still had pending stocks. SHFE aluminum rose 3.70% to 25,520 yuan per ton, and LME aluminum increased 1.89% to $3,564.5 per ton, with current aluminum smelting profits around 8,717.11 yuan per ton. Recommended stocks include Yunnan Aluminium, China Hongqiao Group, and Shenhuo Group, with Innovation Metal as a related target.
In the tin sector, macroeconomic factors dominate price fluctuations, with expectations of near-term volatility. Overseas macroeconomic influence may wane over time. Supply-wise, production resumption in Myanmar has been slower than expected, and Indonesia's export quotas warrant attention. Some Chinese smelters have slightly reduced operating rates due to ore shortages. High prices have increased caution on the demand side, making supply-demand dynamics a key focus. Recommended stocks include Huaxi Nonferrous Metals and Yunnan Tin Company, with Xinjulu as a related target.
Energy metals are experiencing stable off-season demand, while supply disruption risks are rising. Lithium carbonate inventories continued to accumulate last week, but the pace slowed. Production of spodumene-sourced lithium carbonate has declined consecutively, moderating overall supply growth. Expectations are growing that Zimbabwe may disrupt supply. Demand remains steady with anticipated gradual increases, likely leading to tighter supply-demand conditions. Recommended stocks include Yahua Industrial Group, Tibet Summit Resources, and Ganfeng Lithium Group, with Western Mining as a related target.
Cobalt exhibits a pattern of tight raw material supply and cautious demand, with prices fluctuating at elevated levels. Supply remains constrained, and downstream buyers are prudent, but the supply-demand gap persists, supporting firm prices. Recommended stocks include Huayou Cobalt, with GEM Co. as a related target.
In rare earths and strategic metals, certain varieties show notable performance with highlighted value. Neodymium praseodymium oxide prices continue to recover, supported by rising upstream costs and expectations of supply reduction. Last week, prices for neodymium praseodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide were 795,000 yuan, 1.37 million yuan, and 6.075 million yuan per ton, respectively, with weekly changes of +4.95%, 0.00%, and -0.16%. Neodymium praseodymium oxide output reached 9,049 tons in March 2026, up 6.28% month-on-month and 13.85% year-on-year. Cumulative output for January-March was 26,200 tons, a 12.35% annual increase. Medium to long-term, rare earth supply remains inelastic, and demand is expected to grow steadily, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance. Rare earths are viewed as key strategic resources with sustained investment appeal. Recommended stocks include China Rare Earth Resources and JL Mag Rare-Earth, with Jinhui Mining as a related target.
Strategic metals show differentiated performance, with distinct value propositions. Tungsten prices continue to decline, but supply remains tight due to regulatory scrutiny and import restrictions. Overseas premiums support exports, and destocking appears to have bottomed, suggesting potential restocking demand ahead. Recommended stocks include Xiamen Tungsten, with JXJC International Resources and China Tungsten and Hightech as related targets. Uranium prices remain strong, with long-term contract prices reaching $91.5 per pound in March, reflecting persistent supply rigidity and growing demand from nuclear power development. Recommended stocks include China Uranium, with CGN Mining as a related target. Tantalite concentrate prices have moderated amid geopolitical volatility, but global supply tightness persists. Emerging industries like AI are boosting end-demand, supporting expectations of sustained high tantalum prices. Related targets include Orient Tantalum Industry.
Investors should note three key risks in the metals sector: weaker-than-expected downstream demand, potential oversupply from rapid capacity expansion, and slower-than-anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. These factors could adversely affect metal prices through demand, supply, and financial channels.
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