华尔街最准分析师：美股要跌到10月，2023年交易策略来了

华尔街见闻2022-09-17

关于明年，Hartnett认为，最重要的交易是做空美元、做多新兴市场国家货币。一旦美国经济衰退出现明确信号，或者黑天鹅事件诱发，美元可能随时立刻崩溃。在今年预判美股走势最精准的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett看来，当前美股的下挫还没结束，痛苦要持续到下个月。而明年，最重要的交易是做空美元、做多新兴市场国家货币。令美股痛苦延续的最重要因素是美国的通胀，Hartnett认为，...

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Comments

JaniceZhu
2022-09-19
JaniceZhu
令美股痛苦延續的最重要因素是美國的通脹，Hartnett認爲，當前的通脹很難很快降至4%到5%的水平。華爾街普遍預計，只有當通脹降至這一水平，美聯儲纔可能有鬆動當前政策的可能性。
- YWTan:
  👍
- Bonnie_Rock:
  [流泪]
- 达人物语系列:
  从历史上来看，9月中下旬向来是美股最差。
- 老赌神:
  [惊讶]
- Kinag:
  K
SUNYM
2022-09-18
SUNYM
再要熬一個星期。[攤手] [嘆氣]
hhyw
2022-09-18
hhyw
好
王婆卖股
2022-09-18
王婆卖股
美元見頂股市見底，美元短期不會跌，股市倒是跌跌不休
haiwei183
2022-09-18
haiwei183
look
神佛护佑
2022-09-17
神佛护佑
聽聽就好
- haiwei183:
  ok

Leave a comment

156

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Hartnett看来，当前美股的下挫还没结束，痛苦要持续到下个月。而明年，最重要的交易是做空美元、做多新兴市场国家货币。令美股痛苦延续的最重要因素是美国的通胀，Hartnett认为，当前的通胀很难很快降至4%到5%的水平。华尔街普遍预计，只有当通胀降至这一水平，美联储才可能有松动当前政策的可能性。Hartnett认为，未来4到5个月内，美国的联邦基金利率将达到4%至5%。而在未来四到五个季度，美国的失业率也将上升到4%到5%。Hartnett称：利率的新高=美股的新低。谈到当前普遍的悲观情绪，他认为，由于通胀冲击还没有结束，金融状况将再次迅速收紧。从历史上来看，标普500指数在过去140年中经历了20次熊市，平均峰谷跌幅达到37.3%，平均持续时间289天。如果以此来看的话，本轮熊市将在今年10月19日结束，标准普尔500指数最低将触达3020点。这其实不是Hartnett的新观点，他在今年5月就说，今年的熊市将在10月结束，标普500指数最低为3000点。值得注意的是，2008年，美股也是在10月下旬开始触底反弹，但之后又二次探底。Hartnett称，当前，美股还没经历上市公司利润大幅下滑的冲击。而昨天联邦快递撤销2023财年业绩指引，可能是这一过程的开端。全球市场更为动荡，走向长期通胀很快，美联储将在本月加息75个甚至100个基点，日元也将进一步贬值至150。而在之后的三个月中，一系列重大事件将发生：意大利大选、美国中期选举、G20峰会、西方对俄罗斯油价上限的确定等等，Hartnett认为，这些事件都将令市场更为动荡。此外，Hartnett认为，通胀将会是长期的，而不是短暂可以解决的问题。最新的论据是美国货运铁路工人加薪14%以及美国战略石油供应降至自1984年以来最低。从全球来看，德国将公用事业部门国有化、欧盟钢铁业寻求政府援助、G7对能源价格的价格控制并大幅增加军费、地缘冲突不断等等因素，都意味着当前的世界正在从长期通缩转向长期通胀。当前如何交易？在当前的市场环境下，Hartnett的建议是保持防御策略，而要转向看涨美股，则需要以下条件：首次申请失业救济人数超过35万，美债收益率超过4%，信用利差扩大，美元回落。这一切可能会在明年一季度末发生。在今年四季度，Hartnett认为，投资者应当卖出美元，同时买入在高通胀但稳定的通胀背景下表现的大宗商品、银行、小型股、新兴市场股票、价值股。也就是说，避免高杠杆的公司、科技股、私募股权等在量化宽松时期的赢家。关于明年全年，他认为，最重要的是做空美元、做多新兴市场国家货币。一旦美国经济衰退出现明确信号，或者黑天鹅事件诱发，美元可能随时立刻崩溃。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9910904973,"gmtCreate":1663545104192,"gmtModify":1676537285784,"author":{"id":"3580721934889206","authorId":"3580721934889206","name":"JaniceZhu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af488b5cafb7800a5651f7df4b054547","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580721934889206","authorIdStr":"3580721934889206"},"htmlText":"令美股痛苦延續的最重要因素是美國的通脹，Hartnett認爲，當前的通脹很難很快降至4%到5%的水平。華爾街普遍預計，只有當通脹降至這一水平，美聯儲纔可能有鬆動當前政策的可能性。","listText":"令美股痛苦延續的最重要因素是美國的通脹，Hartnett認爲，當前的通脹很難很快降至4%到5%的水平。華爾街普遍預計，只有當通脹降至這一水平，美聯儲纔可能有鬆動當前政策的可能性。","text":"令美股痛苦延續的最重要因素是美國的通脹，Hartnett認爲，當前的通脹很難很快降至4%到5%的水平。華爾街普遍預計，只有當通脹降至這一水平，美聯儲纔可能有鬆動當前政策的可能性。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910904973","repostId":1184702115,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":103993132,"gmtCreate":1663556412840,"gmtModify":1663556416120,"authorId":3582196417642460,"author":{"id":3582196417642460,"idStr":"3582196417642460","authorId":3582196417642460,"name":"YWTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09489d6d8bf785f5e1610b42f7b35112","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9910904973,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">👍</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">👍</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">👍</span>"},{"id":103992886,"gmtCreate":1663555429328,"gmtModify":1663555433749,"authorId":3562147928013316,"author":{"id":3562147928013316,"idStr":"3562147928013316","authorId":3562147928013316,"name":"Bonnie_Rock","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9c40cf345c7f7d2b9b32456ba4babb","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9910904973,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[流泪]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[流泪]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[流泪]</span>"},{"id":103992825,"gmtCreate":1663555262563,"gmtModify":1663555262563,"authorId":3574824458041329,"author":{"id":3574824458041329,"idStr":"3574824458041329","authorId":3574824458041329,"name":"达人物语系列","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3659372995ea41387ab87d7f5e1fb5e3","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 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class=\"s1\">[惊讶]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[惊讶]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[惊讶]</span>"},{"id":103992292,"gmtCreate":1663554356178,"gmtModify":1663554360354,"authorId":3577592690119548,"author":{"id":3577592690119548,"idStr":"3577592690119548","authorId":3577592690119548,"name":"Kinag","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f68091edc02b8d5e110ecb27d16b217","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 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