Goldman Sachs recently held an expert conference call on the DRAM and HBM (high-bandwidth memory) markets and released its latest research report on South Korea's semiconductor memory industry.
Citing expert views, the report noted that the strong boom in the memory chip market will run through 2027 and may even extend into the first half of 2028.
Based on optimistic expectations for HBM and conventional DRAM prices, Goldman Sachs reiterated its "Buy" ratings on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix (SKHY.US), with target prices of 500,000 won and 3.5 million won, respectively.
The following are five core takeaways from the Goldman Sachs report on memory market trends.
DRAM price uptrend will extend into the first half of 2028
Market research firm TrendForce expects DRAM supply to remain tight throughout 2027.
Although consumer demand is relatively weak, supported by strong server demand and limited capacity additions, DRAM average selling prices (ASP) still have room to rise further in coming quarters.
Long-term agreement (LTA) coverage is currently as high as 60% to 70%, which may lead to relatively moderate price increases in 2027, but incremental demand beyond committed volumes can still be negotiated at higher prices.
TrendForce expects DRAM prices to continue rising into the first half of 2028.
HBM prices will rise sharply in 2027, with industry revenue expected to double
TrendForce expects the blended ASP of HBM in 2027 to surge 122% year over year to $3.7/Gb, which will drive HBM industry revenue to grow more than 230% year over year and exceed the $200 billion mark.
TrendForce said pricing differences among different suppliers and customers may be significant, with high-end HBM4 prices potentially exceeding $5/Gb while low-end prices are closer to $3/Gb.
In addition, due to the higher cost of base dies, the price per bit of 8-layer HBM4 may be 5% to 10% higher than that of 12-layer products, while HBM4E pricing next year may be substantially higher than HBM4.
This aligns with Goldman Sachs' previous expectation that HBM ASPs for major suppliers would grow 100% to 160% next year.
Meaningful capacity expansion is unlikely before 2028
Despite aggressive capital expenditure plans by major manufacturers, constrained by cleanroom space limitations and extended equipment delivery cycles, TrendForce believes meaningful DRAM capacity increases are unlikely before 2028.
TrendForce estimates that each South Korean supplier may add 80,000 to 100,000 wafers per month of capacity in 2027, but Samsung Electronics' new capacity is expected to be mostly allocated to HBM, with bit growth in conventional DRAM mainly relying on technology migration.
Equipment supply conditions may not begin to improve until the second half of 2027, allowing new fabs to contribute more meaningful supply from 2028 onward, while suppliers may also control capacity expansion plans based on demand prospects.
Google TPU broadens HBM demand, HBM4 will dominate industry revenue
TrendForce pointed out that Google (GOOGL.US) is becoming an increasingly important driver of HBM demand.
As the share of TPU rises, it will continue to support bit demand for HBM3E even next year, indicating that HBM demand is broadening across generations rather than being concentrated only in HBM4/4E.
At the same time, due to a significant pricing premium, TrendForce expects HBM4 to account for nearly 60% of HBM industry revenue next year.
Medium-term competitive risk from Chinese HBM suppliers is limited
Although Chinese manufacturers continue to invest in capacity and technology, TrendForce believes that compared with leading suppliers, Chinese HBM suppliers still have considerable gaps in technology and yield, so medium-term competitive risk is limited.
TrendForce expects Chinese suppliers' share of the HBM market to be less than 2% in 2027, with Fujian Jinhua (JHICC) still focusing on HBM2E, while ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is targeting HBM3/3E.
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