On January 19th, the National Bureau of Statistics released China's economic annual report for 2025. Preliminary calculations indicate that the annual gross domestic product reached 140.1879 trillion yuan, representing a 5.0% growth compared to the previous year when calculated at constant prices. In 2025, confronting complex shifts in both domestic and international economic landscapes, all regions and departments thoroughly implemented the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, unwaveringly embraced the new development philosophy, and advanced high-quality development. By balancing domestic and international imperatives, coordinating development and security, implementing more proactive and impactful macro policies, and deepening the construction of a unified national market, the national economy progressed resiliently, showing a trend toward innovation and optimization. New achievements were made in high-quality development, and the main targets and tasks for economic and social development were successfully accomplished, marking the successful conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan period, as stated by Kang Yi, Commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics, at the press conference on the performance of the national economy in 2025.
The year 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan period and is a crucial year for promoting high-quality development. The Central Economic Work Conference held in 2025 explicitly called for adhering to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, leveraging the integrated effects of existing and incremental policies, and intensifying both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Against the backdrop of a global economy grappling with insufficient growth momentum intertwined with structural transformations, the trajectory of China's economy throughout 2026 is a subject of intense focus from various sectors. Despite the deepening impact of changes in the external environment and challenges to domestic stable development, China's economic foundation is solid, its advantages are numerous, its resilience is strong, and its potential is vast. The supporting conditions and fundamental trend of long-term improvement remain unchanged. Overall, opportunities outweigh challenges, and favorable conditions are stronger than unfavorable factors; China's economy is positioned for steady and positive growth in 2026 with solid conditions and support, Kang Yi stated.
From the perspective of the development foundation, China achieved substantial results in promoting high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Regarding the development momentum, the steady and progressive operation of the economy in 2025 has created favorable conditions for positive development. In terms of developmental drivers, the cultivation of new quality productive forces and the dividend effects of reforms are continuously emerging. Looking at developmental support, more proactive and effective macro policies will safeguard the stable operation of the economy. Chen Wenling, Vice Chair of the Academic Committee at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and former Chief Economist, expressed that the central government has ample confidence, a well-stocked policy toolkit, and sufficient policy strength to ensure stable economic development and the improvement of quality and efficiency.
In terms of monetary policy, the primary objective will be "stabilizing growth," with precise support directed towards the real economy, technological innovation, new quality productive forces, and expanding domestic demand. The methods employed will become more flexible and effective, potentially involving the comprehensive use of tools such as targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, as well as dynamic exchange rate management, while focusing on smoothing the transmission mechanism to ensure funds directly reach grassroots levels and enterprises. Simultaneously, it is necessary to enhance policy coordination, balancing multiple relationships between existing and incremental policies, short-term and long-term goals, internal and external factors, and stabilizing growth while preventing risks. On the basis of maintaining reasonably ample liquidity and stabilizing the value of the Renminbi, the aim is to promote balanced economic growth that achieves stability amidst complexity while keeping risks under control.
Zhao Xijun, Co-Dean of the China Capital Market Research Institute at Renmin University of China, believes that macro policies in 2026 will focus on improving precision and effectiveness, with monetary policy intensifying both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. He emphasized that macroeconomic policies have already formed a systematic support framework across multiple dimensions—stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, reducing costs, benefiting people's livelihoods, and stabilizing expectations—providing comprehensive safeguards for high-quality economic development.
Regarding the external environment, Zhou Mi, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, indicated that China's foreign trade will continue to play its role as a "stabilizer," with its stability helping all parties jointly resist external uncertainties. As Chinese companies accelerate their overseas investments, trade and supply chains will achieve deeper synergistic development. Concurrently, China will assist the least developed countries in addressing their shortcomings and promoting common development through means such as unilateral preferences and capacity building.
Recently, major international organizations have successively upgraded their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy, indicating international confidence in China's economic prospects. For instance, on January 19th, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the first issue of its World Economic Outlook report for 2026. The IMF projected that global economic growth would reach 3.3% in 2026, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from the October forecast, with a significant portion of this growth expected to come from the United States and China. Simultaneously, the IMF raised its growth forecast for China's economy in 2026 to 4.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast made in October of the previous year.
Comments