During Thursday's Asian trading session, XAU/USD saw a modest rebound but remained within a consolidative correction phase, hovering near a four-week low around $4560 per ounce. This reflected a clear shift towards caution in market sentiment. The core reason for this pullback is the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady while signaling a hawkish policy stance, which has driven the US dollar and Treasury yields higher, thereby diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven and store of value.
In his final press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated he would remain on the board until related uncertainties subside, emphasizing that the Fed's independence is facing challenges. This comment, combined with uncertainty over the policy path, has created divisions in the market regarding the future direction of interest rates. Furthermore, the Fed's latest meeting concluded with an 8-4 vote to maintain the target rate range at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the most divided vote since 1992 and reinforcing market perceptions of policy uncertainty.
On the macroeconomic data front, the US core durable goods orders monthly figure surged to 3.3%, significantly exceeding both the previous reading and expectations. This indicates sustained strength in business investment activity, particularly in spending related to artificial intelligence. This data bolstered market views on economic resilience while also intensifying concerns about a resurgence of inflation. Concurrently, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.43%, and the US Dollar Index advanced to 98.96, reflecting continued capital flows into dollar-denominated assets and applying direct downward pressure on gold.
From a market sentiment perspective, traders are reassessing the future interest rate trajectory. Current market pricing suggests approximately a 29% probability of a Fed rate hike by the April 2027 meeting. This expectation indicates that the market has not fully ruled out the possibility of further policy tightening, thereby limiting the potential for a significant gold rebound. As gold does not yield interest, its attractiveness diminishes in an environment of rising or persistently high interest rates.
Technically, the daily chart structure for gold has turned weak with a consolidative bias, as the price approaches the four-week low region near $4510, showing an overall downward inclination. The price has already breached the key $4550 level; a further break below the psychological $4500 support could see subsequent support levels at $4480 and $4350, with a crucial medium-to-long-term support zone located near $4260. Regarding momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a short-term technical rebound, although overall bearish momentum remains dominant.
On the 4-hour chart, the gold price remains within a clear descending channel, with short-term moving averages configured in a bearish alignment, indicating limited rebound strength. A failure to reclaim and hold above the $4600 level would make it difficult to reverse the current bearish trend. Further resistance above is seen at $4750 and $4850. Overall, the short-term outlook remains dominated by a logic of consolidation and adjustment.
The current correction in gold reflects a market repricing of interest rate and inflation expectations. Against a backdrop of a strengthening US dollar and rising Treasury yields, gold's safe-haven attributes are being suppressed, leading to a weaker short-term trend. However, from a medium-to-long-term perspective, gold still retains potential for a rebound should inflationary pressures persist or geopolitical risks intensify. Future market focus will center on the evolution of the Fed's policy path and incoming inflation data, requiring investors to maintain caution in a high-volatility environment.
Comments