On May 12th, the cryptocurrency market maintained its strong performance, with Bitcoin's price operating steadily within the range of $80,000 to $81,000 per coin. Since the beginning of May, it has accumulated a gain of approximately 5%. If it closes the month in positive territory, it will establish a pattern of three consecutive months of positive returns—March, April, and May. RYOEX noted that BTC has recovered significantly from its previous lows, with continued institutional fund inflows and reasonable leverage levels jointly sustaining the bullish structure. The institution's analysis indicates that key signals monitored by professional investors consistently point to the next critical target level around $85,200 per coin.
From a market structure perspective, the funding rate for perpetual contracts has shifted from negative to neutral, indicating a clear release of previous short-selling pressure. RYOEX believes that market makers hold short gamma exposure around $82,000 per coin, and a price rise could trigger hedging buy orders, providing further upward momentum. The institution assesses that if Bitcoin can close above $80,000 in May, it would confirm a new bull market pattern based on historical trends. Analysts emphasize that three consecutive months of positive closes have never occurred in a bear market historically, and the overall fund structure remains healthy.
On the macroeconomic front, changes in the Federal Reserve Chair's term and potential policy adjustments at the June interest rate meeting introduce uncertainty for subsequent markets, significantly increasing the probability of data-driven price movements. Institutions have observed that long-term holders' positions remain relatively stable, miner selling pressure is moderate, the market structure shows no significant deterioration, and on-chain data remains relatively healthy. Marginal changes in stablecoin market capitalization, trends in perpetual contract funding rates, on-chain active address data, and shifts in miner holdings are also important indicators for gauging institutional sentiment and leverage levels in the crypto market, and should be analyzed comprehensively alongside multidimensional data. For long-term participants, focusing on whether weekly closes can hold key levels provides far more guidance than intraday fluctuations.
RYOEX anticipates that Bitcoin may continue to test higher within the short-term range of $78,000 to $85,000 per coin, with directional choices more likely driven by macroeconomic data and institutional fund behavior. The institution emphasizes that the high volatility and leverage sensitivity of crypto assets require investors to prioritize risk budgeting and position control. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's policy path, Treasury yield trends, regulatory developments, and spot ETF fund flows. Investors should avoid excessive trading driven by one-sided sentiment and adapt to market transition periods with a rational approach.
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