As 2025's trading nears its conclusion, global precious metals markets are witnessing another historic surge. On December 26, international gold and silver prices simultaneously reached new all-time highs. Spot London gold hit a peak of $4,549.9 per ounce, while silver's performance was even more explosive, soaring to a high of $79.4 per ounce during the session, marking a staggering year-to-date increase of over 174%. Throughout 2025, gold initially led the precious metals charge, with silver later accelerating to catch up. The market's trajectory has progressed through several distinct phases: tariff-driven gains, a period of consolidation and adjustment, dominance by interest rate cut expectations, and subsequent technical pullbacks. Just as the market anticipated a high-level consolidation to end the year, a fresh wave of buying emerged, propelling prices to unprecedented new highs.
Specifically, on December 26, the spot price of London bullion broke through the key psychological barrier of $4,500 per ounce. Year-to-date, both COMEX gold futures and spot London gold have surged more than 70%. Silver's performance has been even more remarkable. COMEX silver prices rallied for five consecutive trading sessions from December 19 to 26, climbing from an opening price of $65.44 to a high of $79.7. Since the start of 2025, COMEX silver futures have accumulated gains exceeding 172%. Domestic precious metals markets in China followed suit, with SHFE gold futures up 62% for the year, reaching a high of 1,024 yuan per gram, and SHFE silver futures surging over 157%, hitting a peak of 19,215 yuan per kilogram.
In response to the extreme volatility, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a notice on December 26, announcing adjustments to the trading parameters for gold and silver futures contracts effective from the close of settlement on December 30. This marks the third time this month the exchange has adjusted risk control parameters for precious metals. According to the latest notice, the adjusted price limit for gold and silver futures contracts will be set at 15%, the margin requirement for hedging positions at 16%, and the margin requirement for speculative positions at 17%.
The market is also closely watching potential new trade risks for silver. Silver was added to the US Geological Survey's "critical minerals" list in November, suggesting it could potentially become subject to future tariff discussions. Since early October, 75 million ounces of silver have been withdrawn from New York COMEX warehouses. However, concerns about a potential sudden premium on silver in the US have made many traders cautious about shipping the metal overseas, further exacerbating tightness in international markets.
This global precious metals rally is underpinned by multiple factors. CITIC Securities analysis suggests gold prices in 2026 are expected to continue benefiting from the liquidity-friendly environment created by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with inflows into global gold ETFs serving as a key source of buying pressure. Furthermore, former President Trump has publicly advocated for more accommodative monetary policies; lower interest rates typically support non-yielding assets like precious metals. Amid growing concerns over ballooning government debt worldwide, investors are accelerating their exit from sovereign bonds and fiat currencies, with this "debasement trade" further bolstering demand for gold.
Simultaneously, fundamental supply and demand imbalances are at play. Goldman Sachs noted in a research report that the high correlation between silver and gold prices reflects synchronized capital flows within the precious metals sector. However, unlike gold, silver receives additional support from persistently expanding industrial demand. Data from Bank of America shows the silver market has been in a continuous supply deficit since 2021, with global inventories falling to a ten-year low.
Looking ahead, BOC International indicates that although the initiation of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle might lead some early speculative capital, which entered on easing expectations, to take profits—potentially causing short-term volatility in silver prices—the core logic driving silver has shifted from a purely financial narrative to one bolstered by robust industrial demand fueled by the "green energy transition" and the "AI revolution." Against a backdrop of steadily growing silver consumption in sectors like photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI infrastructure, coupled with structural supply deficits in the global silver market for several consecutive years, silver's commodity attributes are building a solid foundation for long-term appreciation.
Additionally, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes that with gold prices having decoupled from fundamental indicators and model fits, market volatility may increase significantly. It advises deemphasizing point predictions for gold prices and focusing more on identifying inflection points in the asset's trend. A gold bull market in 2026 may not be a one-way street but could experience fluctuations in line with Fed policy and US economic developments.
Related concept stocks: ZIJIN MINING (02899): From 2020 to 2024, its mineral gold production achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12%, ranking among the top of global major gold miners. For 2024-2028, the company continues to plan for copper/gold production CAGRs of 8-10%; it has a strong track record of execution, with average fulfillment rates of production plans for copper/gold at 104%/96% from 2014-2023. The company also possesses strong capabilities in high-value acquisitions and internal resource expansion, with copper/gold resources in 2023 being 6 times/3 times higher than in 2014. JIANGXI COPPER (00358): Jiangxi Copper is a significant silver production base in China. Its "Jiangtong" brand silver is a registered product with the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), giving it international recognition. Although the silver business contributes a relatively small portion of revenue (approximately 3.25%), as a by-product of copper and gold smelting, its production is stable and internationally competitive. Further strength in silver prices or growth in industrial demand could bring additional收益 to the company. SD GOLD (01787): Considering the company's inventory situation, its ongoing new construction and expansion projects, the abundant gold resources of its parent company Shandong Gold Group which could lead to potential future asset injections, and the continued potential for gold price appreciation, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 3.03 billion, 5.083 billion, and 5.938 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. CHI SILVER GP (00815): China Silver Group is a national professional silver producer and comprehensive silver operator, with business covering the entire industry chain from silver manufacturing and jewelry retail to silver trading. The company holds LBMA certification, and the silver ingots it produces boast a purity of 99.999%, among the highest globally. In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.319 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.97%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.966 million yuan, down 31.5% year-on-year.
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