Goldman Sachs has issued a fresh research note on Tesla Motors (TSLA.US), maintaining a "Neutral" rating with a 12-month price target of $360. The firm acknowledges that Tesla's Cybercab could establish a notable cost advantage in the autonomous ride-hailing market, yet it underscores that the scalability of autonomous driving software is the true determinant of the company's business outlook and valuation headroom.
Cybercab officially hit the road on September 3 in Austin, Texas, where Tesla unveiled the robotaxi and commenced paid rides within a designated zone. The vehicle eliminates traditional manual controls—steering wheel, brake pedal, accelerator, and mirrors—adopting a two-seat layout engineered specifically for fully driverless operations. Tesla also announced that its robotaxi fleet has surpassed 1 million miles of cumulative "supervised" driving. According to Texas Department of Motor Vehicles data through September 3, Tesla registered 420 autonomous vehicles in the state, of which 45 were Cybercabs.
Just hours after the launch event, however, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) initiated a compliance review of approximately 1,000 Cybercab units, focusing on Tesla's self-certification process and technical basis for meeting federal motor vehicle safety standards. The news triggered a 5.92% drop in Tesla's share price on September 4, closing at $354.08 and erasing roughly $88 billion in market value in a single session—this after a 5.42% rally the prior day fueled by the Cybercab unveiling.
Tesla's head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, subsequently confirmed that once FSD v15 completes its next round of technical integration, robotaxi services could potentially operate 24/7 starting around October. FSD v15 is described by Tesla as an "architecture-level leap," featuring model parameters roughly 10 times larger than the current version, with seven parallel improvement tracks. Currently, robotaxi services are in regular operation across six U.S. cities—Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa—with daily operating hours from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m.
Goldman Sachs analysts highlight in their report that Tesla's emphasis on low-cost vehicles, leveraging its integrated manufacturing processes and pure vision-based perception systems, is poised to strengthen the economics of its robotaxi business. If Tesla can achieve its target cost range of $20,000 to $30,000 per Cybercab at scale, the company could secure a per-mile cost advantage of $0.05 to $0.30 compared to autonomous driving rivals, whose upfront costs range from $50,000 to $100,000. Industry estimates suggest a single Cybercab costs roughly $23,000 to $25,000, while a Waymo vehicle runs between $70,000 and $150,000.
But Goldman also stresses that for investors, the bigger question is whether Tesla's AI approach can enable rapid geographic scaling of its autonomous driving software. Broader operational coverage would drive more revenue while spreading vehicle cost bases across more miles, making software economics more pivotal to the robotaxi profit model than the vehicle price itself.
The bank's scenario analysis shows Tesla's stock could reach $500 in a bullish case, while it may fall to around $150 in a bearish scenario. Key downside risks include slowing EV demand, intensifying competition, tariff pressures, delays in FSD and other product launches, as well as operational and margin challenges.
Market sentiment on Tesla remains sharply divided. According to LSEG data, 24 analysts currently rate Tesla "Buy" or higher, 23 recommend "Hold," and 7 maintain "Sell" or lower. GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson reiterated a "Sell" rating after the Cybercab launch, with a price target of just $24.86, arguing that Tesla's price-to-earnings ratio of 328 times signals a severely overvalued stock. Morgan Stanley maintains an "Equal-weight" rating with a $400 price target, while StoneX reaffirmed "Buy" with a target of $475 following the Cybercab event.
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