🌟 [Bosera Market Review December 30] Divergence continued in the two markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing slightly lower, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index recorded gains. Trading volume in the two markets increased slightly from the previous day to 2.16 trillion yuan. Overseas, considering political factors such as the US midterm elections next year and the change in the Federal Reserve Chair, an accommodative stance is likely to remain the primary tone. According to the CME "FedWatch Tool", the market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice next year, totaling 50 basis points. The policy orientation of the new Fed Chair may influence the interest rate cut path in the second half of 2026. Domestically, both export volume and trade surplus have reached record highs this year, demonstrating the optimization of China's export structure and direction, which has provided resilience for exports. Next year, with the phased warming of Sino-US economic and trade relations, exports are expected to maintain a relatively good performance. In the equity market, risk appetite has improved recently, but further support from fundamental improvements and a recovery in corporate earnings is still needed. The market may maintain a volatile trend in the short term.
🔥 Market News 🎈 Recently, the People's Bank of China introduced a digital yuan action plan. A new generation digital yuan measurement framework, management system, operational mechanism, and ecosystem will be officially launched and implemented on January 1, 2026. At that time, digital yuan wallet balances will accrue interest based on demand deposit rates, marking the transition of the digital yuan from the "digital cash era" to the "digital deposit currency era." Brief Comment: This "upgrade" of the digital yuan represents a significant transformation from the cash-based Version 1.0 to the deposit currency-based Version 2.0, potentially creating a win-win situation for multiple parties. Enterprises and individuals will gain interest income and access to a wider variety of financial products and services; commercial banks will receive operational incentives from engaging in digital yuan business; and the development of the digital yuan is expected to be more stable and sustainable in the long run.
🎈 On December 29, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council released the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan," which will take effect on January 1, 2026. According to the plan, to enhance the linkage between domestic and international markets and resources and expand the supply of high-quality goods, China will implement provisional import tax rates lower than the Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) rates on 935 items next year. The plan also optimizes tariff line descriptions and national subheading notes, increasing the total number of tariff lines to 8,972. Brief Comment: The "Plan" focuses on high-quality development and high-level opening-up, sending positive signals through precise measures in three key areas: First, it emphasizes reducing tariffs on key components, advanced materials, and medical products, which aids in achieving technological self-reliance and building a "Healthy China" while enriching the supply of high-quality goods. Second, it dynamically adjusts the tariff line structure and removes provisional rates on some goods, reflecting a combination of industrial development guidance and market-based adjustments. Third, it continues to implement preferential tariff rates under free trade agreements and special preferential rates, strengthening regional economic and trade cooperation. The overall plan balances the linkage between domestic and international cycles, providing tariff policy support for the development of new productive forces and improvements in people's livelihoods.
🎈 The Central Rural Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 29 to 30. The conference analyzed the current situation and challenges facing work related to agriculture, rural areas, and farmers, and deployed tasks for 2026. The conference pointed out that 2026 is the first year of the "15th Five-Year Plan," making work related to agriculture, rural areas, and farmers crucial. It emphasized the need to relentlessly focus on grain production, promote the integrated efficiency of high-quality farmland, superior seeds, advanced machinery, and effective methods, and enhance comprehensive agricultural production capacity, quality, and efficiency. It also stressed improving the effectiveness of policies to strengthen agriculture, benefit farmers, and increase rural prosperity, maintaining prices of important agricultural products like grain at reasonable levels, and promoting stable increases in farmers' incomes. Brief Comment: The Central Rural Work Conference set its sights on agricultural and rural modernization, outlining key tasks for 2026 related to agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. It emphasized accelerating the building of a strong agricultural nation, stabilizing grain and oil production, implementing a new round of action to increase grain production capacity by billions of kilograms, strengthening farmland protection and the construction of high-standard farmland, and promoting breakthroughs in key agricultural technologies and the development of new productive forces. This is expected to bring long-term investment opportunities in areas such as agricultural technology, agricultural machinery equipment, and high-standard farmland construction, continuously unleash the consumption potential of county regions, and inject growth momentum into the agricultural sector.
👉 Market Recap 🎈 On December 30, the three major A-share indices closed mixed. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3965.12 points, down 0.004%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13604.07 points, up 0.49%; the ChiNext Index was at 3242.90 points, up 0.63%; and the STAR 100 Index was at 1453.49 points, up 0.18%. Among Shenwan's primary industries, Oil & Petrochemicals, Automobiles, and Nonferrous Metals led the gains, rising 2.63%, 1.35%, and 1.31% respectively. Commercial & Retail Trade, Real Estate, and Utilities were among the top decliners, falling 1.56%, 1.22%, and 1.14% respectively. 1,757 stocks advanced, while 3,348 declined.
💰 Funds Tracking 🎈 Market turnover was 2,161.704 billion yuan, increasing from the previous trading session. The balance of margin lending and short selling closed at 2,551.734 billion yuan yesterday, also rising from the previous day. Data source: Tonghuashun, as of December 30, 2025. Funds carry risks; investment requires caution. Fund managers are committed to managing and utilizing fund assets with honesty,信用, diligence, and responsibility, but do not guarantee that funds will necessarily be profitable, nor do they guarantee returns. The past performance of a fund does not预示 its future performance.
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