2026 Poised to Be a Blockbuster Year for IPOs? From OpenAI to "US Mortgage Giants," Trillions in Private Equity Inventory Await Listing

Stock News12-04

Investment bankers are urging private equity firms to sustain the recovery of the IPO market into 2026, as a backlog of PE-backed companies queue up for public listings following a strong 2025. Last year, PE-backed IPOs surged to their highest quarterly level since 2021 in Q3, and bankers hope this momentum will continue to help clear the pent-up inventory of assets.

**IPO Pipeline Swells, Fundraising Set to Soar** In recent years, buyout firms have extended asset holding periods through various measures, while IPO investors largely waited for the fallout from pandemic-era frenzied trading to subside. Now, a wave of large companies—spanning industries from industrials to tech—are expected to go public in 2026. Banks anticipate PE firms will bring a significant number of portfolio companies to market, revitalizing IPO activity after years of post-pandemic sluggishness.

These potential listings span the globe. In India, Mukesh Ambani’s telecom giant Jio Platforms Ltd.—backed five years ago by investors including KKR & Co.—could command a valuation of up to $170 billion upon listing. In Europe and the U.S., buyout-backed candidates like Advent- and Cinven-supported TK Elevator, HgCapital’s software firm Visma, Blackstone’s Copeland, and EQT’s ABReworld are poised to dominate 2026’s IPO calendar.

While global IPOs (excluding SPACs) raised $146 billion this year, that figure remains below the pre-pandemic decade’s average. Given the sheer scale of some PE-backed IPO candidates, a successful wave of listings could push total proceeds past this threshold—if market conditions cooperate.

“A market rebound without PE portfolio participation won’t single-handedly restore fundraising to levels unseen in five years,” noted Kevin Foley, JPMorgan’s global capital markets head.

**Mixed Performance of 2025 PE-Backed IPOs** Investors must look past the uneven performance of 2025’s PE-backed listings. Hellman & Friedman’s Verisure Plc, up 9% since its Stockholm debut last October, and Carlyle’s Mumbai-listed Hexaware Technologies Ltd., with modest gains, were rare bright spots. The U.S. market proved harsher: Thoma Bravo’s SailPoint Inc. plunged 16% since February, while Advent’s NIQ Global Intelligence Plc nosedived 26% from late July.

Valuation disputes and debt concerns have long deterred PE firms from listing assets. PitchBook data shows just 137 PE-backed IPOs in 2025 through December 3—potentially the lowest tally since 2010. Yet recent months have seen a flurry of pitch meetings, with giants like Blackstone touting their largest IPO pipelines since 2021.

“Sponsors will ultimately have to enter the IPO market in 2026,” said Eddie Molloy, Morgan Stanley’s co-head of global equity capital markets, citing surging underwriter discussions this fall.

**Valuation Hurdles and Exit Strategies** Despite rising markets, the anticipated PE-backed IPO boom has yet to materialize. While interest rates remain historically low, they’re well above pre-pandemic levels—a key sticking point for valuation alignment between investors and asset owners.

“It’s unclear if 2026 will be the inflection point. Ultimately, it hinges on whether PE firms believe they’ve maximized returns and where they are in the investment lifecycle,” Foley added.

To return capital to LPs, PE firms have increasingly turned to continuation funds, pre-IPO placements, and secondary sales. “Sponsors now have more tools than ever to monetize holdings,” noted Citi’s global M&A head Douglas Adams, emphasizing that public listings remain the endgame: “It’s a matter of timing, not if—given these companies’ sheer scale.”

**Europe’s Catch-Up Challenge** Europe, where PE-backed listings like General Atlantic’s SMG Swiss Marketplace Group dominate large IPOs, lags globally in deal size. Barclays’ John Kolz noted, “Activity is picking up, mirroring U.S. trends, but volumes remain subdued.” The region also faces an exodus of companies seeking higher U.S. valuations.

**Landmark Listings to Watch** While PE-backed IPOs draw attention, they may be overshadowed by the potential listings of U.S. mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, currently under discussion in Washington. Other highlights include billionaire Bill Ackman’s planned $5 billion closed-end fund IPO and tech darlings like OpenAI and Databricks—whose sky-high private valuations dwarf 2025’s hottest debuts.

Unlike PE firms pressured to return LP capital, unicorns face no obvious constraints beyond investors’ willingness to keep funding them privately. “The ceiling for private markets is untested, but public markets can absorb far more,” Foley remarked.

**Asia Leads, Global Opportunities Beckon** Asia continues to dominate IPO volumes, prompting investors elsewhere to cast wider nets. Morgan Stanley’s Arnaud Blanchard cited “attractive valuations, Asian capital inflows, and rapid innovation—especially in tech and healthcare”—as key drivers.

As 2026 approaches, all eyes are on whether this could finally be the year private equity’s trillion-dollar backlog meets public markets.

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