As the quiet period following the SpaceX IPO ended on July 6th, several major Wall Street banks have initiated coverage on the space giant for the first time, with price targets ranging from $190 to $300. This wide spread highlights significant differences in how institutions value the company's artificial intelligence and satellite businesses.
Morgan Stanley issued the highest target price of $300, initiating coverage with an "Overweight" rating and setting a bearish scenario of $75 and a bullish scenario of $600. The analyst team positioned SpaceX as a key player in space infrastructure, projecting the company's revenue could reach $319 billion by 2030 and surpass $3.3 trillion by 2040. The bank forecasts that SpaceX will not achieve positive free cash flow until 2035, with capital expenditures expected to hit $300 billion annually by 2031.
RBC Capital Markets initiated coverage with an "Outperform" rating and a $225 price target, valuing the company at approximately 15 times its projected 2029 EBITDA. Its core thesis revolves around the enduring advantage of computing power, with analysts suggesting that while AI models and applications may evolve, the demand for computing power is persistent.
UBS assigned a "Buy" rating and a $210 price target, arguing that the Starship rocket will unlock a market opportunity approaching $30 trillion. The firm predicts the company's revenue and EBITDA will expand at compound annual growth rates of approximately 70% and 90%, respectively, through 2031.
Citigroup issued a "Buy" rating with a $200 price target, while also outlining a long-term valuation pathway exceeding $900. Goldman Sachs set a $205 price target, expressing optimism about SpaceX's ability to expand its differentiated advantages across three key areas: space, connectivity, and artificial intelligence.
Taking a more conservative stance, Stifel initiated coverage with a $190 price target, citing potential headwinds from a slower-than-expected Starship development timeline. The firm applied a lower valuation multiple to the AI business, reasoning that orbital data centers have not yet been proven at a commercial scale. Similarly, analysts at Wedbush set a $190 price target, emphasizing the dual investment logic of Starlink as a current profit driver and AI as a long-term opportunity.
Wall Street institutions are nearly unanimous in their positive long-term outlook for SpaceX. However, the valuation disparity itself underscores that the question of what this company, now valued at over $2 trillion, is truly worth remains open for debate.
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