Domestic Fuel Prices to Drop After Tonight's Adjustment, Institutions Weigh In on Global Oil Market Outlook

Following the price adjustment effective tonight, the cost to fill up a standard 50L fuel tank for a typical private car will decrease by approximately 20 yuan.

The domestic refined oil product price adjustment window will open again at midnight tonight.

The latest notice from the National Development and Reform Commission indicates that since the last domestic fuel price adjustment on May 21st, international crude oil prices have fluctuated downwards before recently showing some recovery. The average price over the 10 working days preceding this adjustment is lower than the average over the 10 working days before the previous adjustment.

In response to changes in international oil prices, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that starting at midnight tonight, the prices of standard-grade gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 525 yuan and 505 yuan per ton, respectively.

When calculated on a per-liter basis, after tonight's adjustment, the price of 89-octane gasoline will drop by 0.38 yuan per liter, 92-octane gasoline by 0.40 yuan per liter, 95-octane gasoline by 0.42 yuan per liter, and 0-diesel by 0.43 yuan per liter.

This adjustment aligns with earlier expectations obtained from industry information provider Longzhong Information. The price cut translates to lower travel costs for private car owners and logistics companies.

According to calculations by the agency, for a typical private car with a 50L fuel tank, the cost of a full refill will be about 20 yuan cheaper after this adjustment. For vehicles with an urban fuel consumption of 7L-8L per 100 kilometers, the average cost for every 100 kilometers driven will decrease by roughly 3 yuan. For large logistics vehicles with a full load of 50 tons, the average fuel cost for every 100 kilometers traveled will be reduced by approximately 17.2 yuan.

During the current pricing cycle, the international crude oil market initially declined, then rose, ultimately closing lower overall.

Longzhong Information oil analyst Li Yan provided analysis, noting that at the start of the cycle, market optimism about the prospects for U.S.-Iran talks and the potential gradual opening of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz led to a significant drop in international oil prices. Towards the end of the cycle, however, as Israel continued military operations in Lebanon and Iran stated it would suspend talks and completely blockade the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices rebounded.

Looking ahead, Li Yan believes that while low-intensity military friction exists between the U.S. and Iran, the probability of a full-scale reignition of conflict is relatively low. "The U.S. side is expected to potentially reach a peace agreement by the end of June, and the market holds a positive outlook for U.S.-Iran talks, suggesting a potential turning point for easing geopolitical tensions."