Top Analyst's Model Forecasts Yen to Plummet to 170 Against Dollar Next Year

Deep News07-17

According to the analyst deemed most accurate in Bloomberg's latest ranking for predicting the USD/JPY exchange rate, the Japanese yen could depreciate to as low as 170 against the US dollar next year. His forecasting model largely disregards news, relying primarily on technical analysis.

Vikram Murarka, founder and chief currency strategist at Kshitij Consultancy Services, makes his yen forecasts from his office in Kolkata, India, thousands of miles from Tokyo. In Bloomberg's previous quarterly survey, he was the most accurate in predicting the USD/JPY rate and was among the few analysts who had forecast the pair would breach the 160 level.

The strategist noted that one of his key advantages is focusing on market signals rather than on every piece of news released by Japan's Ministry of Finance or the Prime Minister's Office. The screens on his desk are filled with charts tracking variables such as the ratio of the Nikkei 225 index to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, short-term interest rate differentials, and the Chinese yuan to Japanese yen exchange rate.

"We don't pay much attention to the news," Murarka stated, who uses a similar method to predict the EUR/USD exchange rate, where he ranks second. He added that any factor they track should be reflected in the price charts.

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