As the A-share market prepares to enter September trading, investors are keenly watching how the market will perform. Based on the collective views of 10 major brokerages, most believe that with overseas risks easing, the external environment for A-shares is expected to improve marginally. Combined with domestic policy support underpinning the market's center of gravity, the rebound in A-shares is likely to persist, potentially extending the much-anticipated "golden autumn rally" in China's equity markets.
Guotai Junan Securities suggests the "golden autumn rally" has room to extend further. The core driver comes from the marginal convergence of uncertainty expectations, which is fueling a recovery in market risk appetite. Firstly, market risk has declined significantly—shrinking turnover and narrowing volatility indicate reduced selling pressure, capital outflows have essentially moderated, and the breadth of the rebound has improved, gradually restoring the market's price-discovery function. Secondly, the impact of external risk shocks appears to have peaked, with panic sentiment receding. While this does not mean negative factors have been systematically resolved, recent pressures such as overseas market deleveraging, rising US Treasury yields, and US-Iran tensions have either eased or been actively "managed." Additionally, the hawkish inflation stance from Fed Chair Warsh has helped dispel market concerns. Thirdly, domestic economic policies and supportive measures for the capital market create a favorable pricing environment. The NDRC's national investment promotion meeting emphasized accelerating efforts to stabilize investment, while financial authorities and the Ministry of Housing have jointly introduced measures to stabilize the property sector. The CSRC's rapid approval of 16 ChiNext ETFs focused on computing power and fintech, along with renewed emphasis on the safety of Chinese assets, though not immediately altering the economic trajectory, play a critical role in stabilizing expectations and invigorating market sentiment. In terms of market style, the current phase is likely to see broader diffusion and a shift toward lower-tier opportunities.
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities maintains its short-to-medium-term market view: after the second bottom was confirmed, the rebound could last until late September. Once the market anticipates steady and long-term policy measures, the concentrated fermenting of optimistic expectations across long, medium, and short timeframes may mark the peak of this rebound cycle. For the AI supply chain to restart its upward trend, a higher level of industrial catalysts is required, likely taking longer. Correspondingly, September may not see new highs, and there could be additional adjustment phases. The correction in tech could last on a quarterly scale. Both macro and industrial fronts face the challenge of extrapolating current conditions far into the future—high US Treasury yields are incompatible with long-term fiscal sustainability and manageable corporate credit risk, while widespread inflation across AI computing power segments conflicts with the long-term expansion of AI applications. Short-term positive catalysts in the AI chain may sustain an oversold rebound, but concerns over potential setbacks in long-term industrial prosperity remain unresolved, capping valuations. The recommendation is to focus on sectors with stronger rebound potential, particularly non-institutional heavyweight positions within the AI chain, domestic computing power, and small-cap AI names. Overseas AI computing chains with recent catalysts—such as Nvidia-linked, memory, and PCB segments—also offer short-term upside.
China Galaxy Securities highlights three key balancing acts facing the A-share market. First, policy expectations: steady-growth measures are intensifying, with the "six networks" advancing from planning to project coordination, investment mechanisms, and construction, while property financing support is strengthening. The key question remains the scope for incremental policies amid weak domestic demand, and how effectively fiscal funds, major project starts, equipment tenders, and property sales validate policy effectiveness. Second, earnings verification: as of August 28, 5,393 listed companies had disclosed interim reports, showing a continued positive earnings trend. Electronics, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials lead profit growth, providing increasingly solid earnings support for earlier growth and resource sector expectations. Attention will shift to Q3 and full-year earnings forecasts, favoring sectors where sustained profit delivery aligns with valuations. Third, external disturbances: Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks maintain a hawkish tone, with high overseas rates constraining high-valuation growth sectors. However, global AI capital expenditure remains elevated, likely shifting tech trends toward internal differentiation driven by orders and earnings. US-Iran tensions could still disrupt risk appetite via oil prices and inflation expectations. Overall, domestic policy expectations should support the market's center, interim and future earnings will influence the sustainability of structural opportunities, while external risks may intermittently affect short-term sentiment and valuations.
Huatai Securities notes that last week saw a volatile recovery, but with notable high-low switching: agriculture, coal, and non-bank financials led gains while communications, new energy, and pharmaceuticals corrected. After the oversold rebound, funds resumed rebalancing. By August 28, the tracked A-share sentiment index had risen to 63.6%, above neutral. The main constraint remains crowding and trading concentration. With the interim reporting season ending, a slowdown in the second derivative of CSP capex and large-model ARR, and hawkish signals from Warsh's central bank meeting, tech's oversold rebound now requires stronger industrial catalysts or a new market leader to drive further progress. Short-term rebalancing may accelerate; the advice is to control positions and allocate broadly across sectors with earnings and positioning "mismatches," such as shipbuilding, select chemicals, agriculture, and innovative drug leaders, while maintaining dividend stocks as a base and awaiting a new market consensus.
CITIC Securities observes that since 2022, rapid structural rotation has been the norm in A-shares, with extreme rotation speeds typically lasting one to two months. The common thread is insufficient breadth in earnings upgrades and scarce sustainable themes. With trade frictions entering a high-frequency phase and exchange-rate effects amplifying, overseas expansion—one of A-shares' most important earnings drivers—now faces valuation constraints, limiting market breadth and promoting fast sector rotation. Breaking the impasse requires new developments. Recent AI progress strengthens the existing trend of rapidly growing computing power demand but falls short of transforming long-term commercialization narratives. If new changes such as RSI or distillation-resistant technologies emerge, they could unlock long-term valuation headroom. During rapid rotation, most winning style strategies fall under the "low-valuation" camp, though only the PB-ROE strategy clearly outperforms, with returns strengthening as rotation speeds up. Momentum strategies suffer the most. In high-rotation environments, opportunities are more likely to manifest as valuation repairs for fundamentally supported names. In terms of allocation, the mid-term strategy proposes a "AI + energy/chemicals" barbell structure—AI played out strongly in Q2, while energy and chemicals may gradually heat up next.
CSC Financial says market sentiment is at a moderately high level (slightly above 50), but clearly constrained by capital flows (failing to break above 60), making a broad rally difficult. The market is expected to remain in mid-range consolidation. Looking at component indicators, volume has continued to shrink while prices have visibly recovered; the oversold rebound drove sentiment improvement, but once complete, incremental capital appears insufficient to reverse the weak market structure.
China Merchants Securities expects the A-share rebound to continue in September, though the pace may feature an initial rise followed by consolidation. The market remains in the third phase of earnings-driven ascent, with Q2 results further validating high-prosperity sectors like tech and resources, and the market logic shifting from valuation-driven to earnings-driven. With US Treasury risks released, Sino-US relations at a pivotal juncture, US-Iran tensions easing, and overseas markets stabilizing, the external environment for A-shares is improving marginally. On the industrial front, AI continues accelerating—domestic large models are flourishing and Nvidia's earnings have re-validated AI prosperity. In terms of rhythm, the rebound should persist through mid-to-early September, while approaching the National Day holiday, historical calendar effects suggest a relatively defensive market style.
Guosen Securities believes the market may be brewing a fresh directional move. From late August to early September, the market could break upward and initiate a new rally. First, consolidation time has matured: since the "924" rally in 2024, A-share consolidations typically last 3-6 months after trend moves. The Wind All-A Index peaked in mid-May 2026; by late August, the consolidation should be largely complete. Second, earnings pressure is easing: once interim reports are fully disclosed by end-August, earnings uncertainty concludes, allowing the market to choose upward direction. Third, policy expectations are supportive: the July Politburo meeting added language on "fully leveraging existing policy effectiveness and promptly planning pragmatic incremental policies to increase counter-cyclical adjustment." Incremental policies are likely to be formulated around end-September based on high-frequency Q3 data, further supporting indices. It is expected that from late August to late October, A-shares may enter a favorable window for renewed positioning, allowing for increased risk appetite and higher positions.
Zheshang Securities suggests the recent "pullback" phase may have concluded, with the market likely to continue its medium-term rebound through range-bound trading with a gradually rising center. Before the medium-term rebound target is achieved, short-term pullbacks are harmless and may present opportunities. Last week's dip tested support before rebounding, with most indices closing higher, showing a pattern of "second-bottom rotation rebound with telecom and new energy pulling back." The advice is to hold medium-term positions and await the rebound's progress, while short-term traders can participate on dips during the "two steps forward, one step back" pattern, without panicking during pullbacks. Previously favored innovative drugs have risen significantly—opportunistic dips are fine but chasing highs is not. Securities and Hang Seng Tech are completing their pullback phases and can be accumulated on dips; media, computers, non-ferrous metals, and SOE-related names can follow similar logic. Recent property policies and El Ni帽o's impact on global agriculture suggest selective attention to real estate and agriculture-related sectors.
Huaan Securities sees September's core focus on the Fed's rate decision, with external factors remaining the dominant market contradiction—coexisting disturbance and repair, without sustained downward pressure or significant upward thrust. The most important event is the mid-September FOMC meeting. Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks have briefly disrupted rate-cut expectations and risk-sentiment recovery, but a smooth transition is expected. Domestic economic resilience persists, the proposed new US tariffs have limited impact on risk appetite and exports, and the effects of property credit policies remain to be observed. Overall, with no significant suppression or effective boost to risk, the market is expected to trade in a range. In allocation, the AI supply chain—especially upstream and midstream hardware—remains the optimal medium-to-long-term choice. While maintaining these positions during the broad consolidation phase, coal can be considered as a volatility hedge and balance.
Comments