低利率、高赤字、脱缰的通胀......美国正重演1968年

华尔街见闻2021-05-22

作者：叶桢正如一千个人眼中有一千个哈姆雷特，在投资者眼里，当下的美国市场也在上演着不同版本的故事。对于多头来说，当下美股犹如2017-2018年，强劲的增长、尚处于安全区间内的收益率、犹豫不决的美联储，以及一触即发的融涨。而对于空头来说，当下美股犹如金融危机爆发前夕，即将爆发一系列去杠杆化的事件，并以“明斯基时刻”告终。不过美国银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett认为，最能比拟...

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Vincent8090
2021-05-24
Vincent8090
[財迷] [財迷]
- Jimmy_Lim:
  [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
请对我善良点
2021-05-23
请对我善良点
該進場嗎？
瀚妈
2021-05-23
瀚妈
Ok
小小小橘子
2021-05-23
小小小橘子
j
- 小小小橘子:
  b
- 小小小橘子:
  h
我要Bonus
2021-05-23
我要Bonus
?
SiangTee
2021-05-23
SiangTee
[微笑]

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The United States is repeating 1968","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f05ba68d2e7c358d88e45327527c6cb","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"作者：叶桢\n正如一千个人眼中有一千个哈姆雷特，在投资者眼里，当下的美国市场也在上演着不同版本的故事。\n对于多头来说，当下美股犹如2017-2018年，强劲的增长、尚处于安全区间内的收益率、犹豫不决的美联储，以及一触即发的融涨。而对于空头来说，当下美股犹如金融危机爆发前夕，即将爆发一系列去杠杆化的事件，并以“明斯基时刻”告终。\n不过美国银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett认为，最能比拟当下市场的应该是1967-1969年，为了安抚民粹注意，放任低利率和巨额预算赤字，导致通胀飙升至多年新高。\n正如下图所示，无论是1968年还是当下，美联储都是主导市场走势的那只看不见手：\n\n据美银，当时的剧本是这样的：\n\n 1967年：收益率飙涨1001个基点，股票上涨24%，波动率下降37%，小盘股、科技股和成长型股票是市场大赢家，政府债券和防御性股票是最大输家；1968年：收益率涨32个基点，股票涨11%，波动率开始上升，涨5%，银行、价值股、小盘股、能源股是大赢家，政府债券、科技和信贷被市场抛弃；1969年：收益率上涨89个基点，股票跌8%，波动率飙升99%，铜、医药、科技成为市场赢家，能源、小盘股、价值股和银行股被抛售。\n\n如果一切是1968重演，那么当时的故事走向对于今天的市场或许也有些许借鉴意义。那么1968年之后发生了什么呢？\n和2021年上半年一样，1968年也经历了价值股牛市，接着就迎来了1969年动荡的牛市。随后到来的20世纪70年代，美国爆发恶性通货膨胀，直到保罗·沃尔克祭出了20%的利率才阻止这个帝国的崩溃。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":133740088,"gmtCreate":1621813817144,"gmtModify":1704362551543,"author":{"id":"3582619411234920","authorId":"3582619411234920","name":"Vincent8090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/633a83509714bf29fdc2b04616c25da6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582619411234920","idStr":"3582619411234920"},"htmlText":"[財迷]&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[財迷]&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;","text":"[財迷] 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