According to a research report from CICC, data from Maoyan Professional shows that as of 12:00 on January 28, 2026, a total of six films have been scheduled for release on February 17th (the first day of the Lunar New Year). Among the confirmed titles, "Pegasus 3," "Awakening Silence," and "Blades of the Guardians" have garnered significant attention. The industry pipeline also includes films such as "New Year's Crime" and "Battle of the Penghu Islands." The Spring Festival holiday is a crucial movie release window at the beginning of the year, often setting the tone for annual box office performance and possessing the potential to catalyze substantial earnings for individual films. For the 2026 Spring Festival season, the scheduling of domestic films has occurred relatively late (compared to around one month in advance in 2025), and the holiday's box office revenue also faces a high base effect from the strong performance of "Nezha 2" in 2025. CICC's main views are as follows:
The Spring Festival holiday effect helps catalyze the box office potential of individual films. According to EntGroup data, the total box office (including service fees) for the Spring Festival holidays from 2021 to 2025 was approximately 78/60/68/82/95 billion yuan, accounting for about 17%/20%/12%/19%/19% of the annual total, respectively. Data from Maoyan Professional indicates that six of the top ten highest-grossing films in China are Spring Festival releases, with recent examples including "Nezha: The Devil's Chaos in the Sea" (total box office around 15.5 billion yuan) and "Full River Red" (total box office around 4.5 billion yuan). As a key period at the start of the year, the Spring Festival holiday often lays the foundation for the year's overall box office and holds the potential to significantly boost the revenue of individual films.
Six films are already scheduled for the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, with box office facing a high base impact. CICC points out that the scheduling of domestic films for the 2026 Spring Festival season is late (compared to approximately one month in advance in 2025), and the holiday's box office also contends with the high comparative base set by "Nezha 2" in 2025. Furthermore, as the release windows for imported blockbusters "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar 3" have been extended into the 2026 Spring Festival slot, domestic film distributors may be adopting a cautious approach to scheduling and a conservative promotional strategy due to concerns about market share erosion. Overall, with current audience demand showing a trend toward concentration on top-tier films, the possibility of a dark horse emerging cannot be ruled out if market expectations are subdued.
CICC estimates the holiday's 7-day box office (including service fees) at 75.10 billion yuan under a neutral scenario, representing a year-on-year decrease of approximately 21%. CICC believes that the consumption power in lower-tier cities has improved in recent years, and the trend of individuals returning to their hometowns in higher-tier cities during the Spring Festival and watching movies there is likely to continue. The firm projects the 2026 Spring Festival box office (including service fees) to be approximately 65/75/85 billion yuan under conservative/neutral/optimistic scenarios, representing year-on-year changes of about -32%/-21%/-10%, respectively.
Regarding specific stocks, CICC expresses optimism toward MAOYAN ENT (01896) (a leading ticketing platform, primary distributor for "Pegasus 3" and "Panda Plan: Tribal Adventure"), DAMAI ENT (01060) (primary investor in "Awakening Silence" and "Blades of the Guardians: Wind Rises in the Desert"), and Wanda Film Holding Co.,Ltd. (002739.SZ) (a leading cinema chain, participant in multiple films). The report also suggests monitoring China Film Group Co.,Ltd. (600977.SH), Shanghai Film Co.,Ltd. (601595.SH), and Hengdian Entertainment Co.,Ltd. (603103.SH).
Risk factors include films failing to meet quality expectations, piracy, public opinion risks, and tighter regulatory controls.
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