Abstract
Walmart Inc. is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter results on August 20, 2026 Pre-MKt, and this preview outlines consensus expectations for revenue, profitability, and EPS, compares them with management’s latest outlook, reviews last quarter’s performance, and highlights the key businesses and catalysts that may drive the stock’s next move.Market Forecast
The current quarter’s consensus points to revenue of 186.88 billion US dollars, up 6.09% year over year, with EBIT estimated at 8.65 billion US dollars, implying a 0.98% year-over-year decline, and adjusted EPS at 0.742, up 0.10% year over year. Gross profit margin and net margin guidance are not widely quantified in the near-term forecasts, leaving margin trajectory a central uncertainty for investors this quarter.Against this backdrop, management’s own outlook from the prior update called for second-quarter adjusted EPS between 0.72 and 0.74 and revenue between 182.80 billion and 184.60 billion US dollars, a range that trails the current consensus on both metrics. Within the operating mix, Walmart U.S. remains the dominant engine expected to leverage high-frequency categories and traffic gains, while membership, marketplace, advertising, and fulfillment services continue to deepen monetization and support margin resilience. The most promising scaled segment remains Sam’s Club at 23.41 billion US dollars in last quarter’s revenue; year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed, but membership expansion and higher renewal rates are poised to support ongoing top-line momentum.
Last Quarter Review
Walmart Inc. delivered revenue of 177.75 billion US dollars, up 7.33% year over year, with a gross profit margin of 25.14%, GAAP net income attributable to the company of 5.33 billion US dollars (net profit margin 3.00%), and adjusted EPS of 0.66, up 8.20% year over year; sequentially, GAAP net income increased by 25.80%. Revenue exceeded market expectations by 2.77 billion US dollars and adjusted EPS was modestly ahead, reinforcing the company’s ability to convert traffic and mix into incremental earnings despite a cautious macro tone.By operating line, Walmart U.S. generated 117.17 billion US dollars, Walmart International recorded 35.11 billion US dollars, Sam’s Club reached 23.41 billion US dollars, and Membership and Other contributed 2.07 billion US dollars; while segment-level year-over-year growth rates were not disclosed, the mix underscores the continued centrality of the U.S. operation alongside durable membership-led contributions. The company’s EBIT for the quarter was 7.50 billion US dollars, and the combination of share gains in staples, expanding digital penetration, and disciplined expense control supported the above-consensus revenue outcome and year-over-year earnings growth.
Current Quarter Outlook
Walmart U.S. (core operations)
Management’s guidance implies a conservative stance on near-term consumer elasticity and a measured view on retail price inflation, with the company flagging that persistent cost pressures could translate into somewhat higher retail price inflation in the second quarter and into the second half. Traffic remains the key driver for the domestic business, aided by aggressive value positioning and broad assortment in high-frequency categories that help sustain visits and wallet share. The principal watch item is product mix: continued strength in grocery and other staples drives share gains and frequency but tends to compress gross margin relative to general merchandise, which historically carries higher markdown sensitivity but also higher margin when conditions normalize.E-commerce penetration continues to rise across pickup, delivery, and ship-to-home, supporting topline momentum and enabling cross-sell between core baskets and discretionary categories. Yet, the margin contribution of e-commerce depends on improving unit economics and fulfillment density; the development of last-mile efficiencies and better utilization of the store network as fulfillment hubs is a central lever to mitigate fulfillment costs. Expense control and SG&A leverage remain pivotal in translating sales growth into operating income, and the company’s prior quarter demonstrated an ability to manage labor and logistics costs in line with volume growth. Overall, the domestic engine is set to deliver mid-single-digit revenue expansion consistent with consensus, but margin cadence will hinge on the balance between traffic-led grocery strength and any rebound in higher-margin discretionary categories.
Advertising, Marketplace, and Fulfillment Services
High-margin revenue streams—advertising (Walmart Connect), third-party marketplace, and Walmart Fulfillment Services—are pacing as the structural growth vector most accretive to profitability over the medium term. These businesses monetize the company’s large traffic base and data capabilities, enabling incremental gross profit dollars with limited inventory risk and attractive operating leverage. As marketplace penetration grows, third-party seller fees, advertising placements, and fulfillment services yield a layered monetization model similar to scaled digital platforms, with a favorable flow-through into EBIT.Investor focus in this quarter will be on signs of sustained double-digit growth in these lines, though the company does not report detailed revenue splits each quarter. A key positive is the reinforcing loop between marketplace breadth and consumer experience: broader assortment raises conversion and ad inventory value, while better fulfillment reliability and delivery speed improve customer satisfaction. The recent completion of a targeted digital acquisition and ongoing investments in retail media technology suggest continued build-out of capabilities that can support advertiser demand and enhance attribution transparency. The faster these high-margin streams scale relative to core retail sales, the more they can offset mix pressures from staples-heavy baskets and provide a cushion for operating income against cost headwinds.
Key swing factors for the share price this quarter
The first swing factor is the gap between consensus and management’s guidance. Consensus forecasting 186.88 billion US dollars in revenue and 0.742 in adjusted EPS implies upside versus guidance ranges of 182.80–184.60 billion US dollars and 0.72–0.74, respectively. A print closer to the high end of the guided ranges, coupled with commentary that narrows the gap with consensus, would likely be taken positively; conversely, if revenue and EPS track the low end with a cautious second-half tone, shares may consolidate.The second factor centers on gross margin trajectory and mix. If general merchandise activity improves relative to staples, gross margin could benefit, while persistent staples-led baskets and elevated logistics costs could cap margin improvement. Operating expense discipline will be closely watched—particularly store labor productivity, supply-chain costs, and technology spend—as investors assess whether EBIT growth can outpace sales. On that metric, the quarter’s forecasted EBIT implies a slight year-over-year decline at 8.65 billion US dollars, so commentary on second-half margin plans will be crucial.
A third consideration is the cadence of membership and loyalty economics. Sam’s Club and broader membership programs provide predictable, high-margin fee income and retention, and signs of sustained renewal rates and paid member growth would support the outlook for both top-line durability and operating leverage. Importantly, the retail media and marketplace flywheel also depends on healthy member traffic and seller engagement; thus, membership expansion can indirectly support advertising demand and fulfillment throughput. On the event front, leadership transitions and isolated product recalls are in focus this quarter; such events are operationally manageable but can create short-term noise if they overlap with peak promotional windows, making management’s execution commentary and service-level data relevant for sentiment.
Analyst Opinions
Bullish views dominate the preview period, with a clear tilt toward positive ratings and constructive multi-year operating leverage narratives. The count of bullish to bearish opinions in the recent window stands at 7 to 0. Several high-profile institutions reiterate Buy ratings while focusing on the durability of sales growth and the accretive nature of retail media and marketplace economics to operating income.Goldman Sachs maintained a Buy rating with a 154.00 price target, emphasizing ongoing traction in digital monetization and the ability of advertising and marketplace to compound faster than core sales. UBS reiterated a Buy and set a 147.00 target, highlighting that share gains in everyday categories, rising e-commerce penetration, and retail media expansion should allow operating income to grow faster than revenue over time. Morgan Stanley kept a Buy at 140.00, focusing on the company’s balance of value positioning with scaling high-margin initiatives; it views the gap between guidance and consensus as surmountable if traffic remains robust and mix headwinds ease. Truist Financial reiterated a Buy at 140.00, pointing to continued customer acquisition and retention through convenience, value, and omnichannel services, which underpin the top-line outlook and cross-category purchase frequency.
Barclays reaffirmed a Buy at 132.00 and underscored expense discipline and the benefits of leveraging the store base as a fulfillment network to drive e-commerce unit economics. RBC Capital also maintained a Buy at 137.00, noting consistency in execution and the embedded leverage in the retail media stack as a medium-term profit driver. BTIG reiterated a Buy with a 145.00 price forecast and articulated a multi-year view that operating income should outpace sales growth through fiscal 2028, citing a combination of low- to mid-single-digit revenue growth, improving gross margin, and gradual SG&A leverage.
From these perspectives, several analytical themes recur. First, revenue quality matters as much as quantity: if high-margin streams accelerate—advertising, marketplace, and fulfillment—then modestly conservative top-line guidance can still produce favorable EBIT outcomes. Second, the omnichannel infrastructure is seen as a competitive advantage in lowering last-mile costs and boosting customer satisfaction, enabling traffic resilience even when discretionary categories are muted. Third, valuation frameworks in these notes increasingly separate core retail cash generation from the higher-multiple retail media and services layer; in this lens, beats or near-high-end prints on adjusted EPS carry more weight if accompanied by evidence that media and marketplace penetration expanded quarter over quarter.
Putting it together for the upcoming print, the majority of analysts are constructive that consensus revenue growth of 6.09% year over year is achievable, while acknowledging that near-term EBIT could be constrained by mix and inflationary inputs. Positive surprise risk would come from better-than-expected general merchandise activity, stronger-than-anticipated advertising bookings, or incremental SG&A leverage. Downside risk in the eyes of bullish analysts centers on a scenario where staples-led baskets persist without relief from discretionary categories, reducing gross margin expansion, and where logistics or wage pressures re-accelerate. However, given that last quarter’s results topped revenue expectations by 2.77 billion US dollars and adjusted EPS improved by 8.20% year over year, the predominant view is that execution remains solid and that management’s measured guidance leaves room for favorable variance if demand trends hold.
In summary, the prevailing institutional stance is bullish: consensus expects mid-single-digit revenue expansion and steady adjusted EPS, while analysts frame the equity story around growing contributions from retail media, marketplace, and fulfillment that can offset mix headwinds and support operating income compounding beyond this quarter. Should the company report near the higher end of its guided revenue and EPS ranges and accompany the print with confident commentary on high-margin initiatives, the majority camp anticipates the shares to respond constructively, consistent with their Buy ratings and medium-term targets.
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