Recent monitoring data indicates the El Niño phenomenon is entering a phase of rapid development. A comprehensive assessment by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center suggests a powerful El Niño event will form this autumn and winter, with the likelihood of surpassing historical records continuing to increase. Experts from the center have analyzed the potential impacts of this event on China's climate.
Since the spring of 2026, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have been persistently and anomalously warm. Based on integrated ocean monitoring, atmospheric circulation analysis, and multi-model predictions, the center forecasts the formation of a powerful El Niño event this autumn and winter. There is a possibility it could exceed the intensity of the historically strong 1997/1998 event, necessitating early preparation for various climate and marine disaster risks.
Analysis shows this El Niño exhibits typical warming characteristics. The warming initially appeared in the coastal waters off Peru in the eastern equatorial Pacific this spring and gradually expanded westward. Prior to the surface warming, the subsurface layer in the western equatorial Pacific had already accumulated a large volume of warm water, which has been continuously moving eastward and rising, laying the foundation for the event's development. Monitoring data reveals that the sea surface temperature index for the key Niño3.4 region in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific was 0.47°C, 0.94°C, and 1.55°C in April, May, and June, respectively. The official El Niño state was entered in May, with the recent warming rate accelerating significantly.
The forecasting center stated that, in a same-period comparison, the current anomalous sea surface temperature intensity in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has already surpassed levels observed during the same period of the 1997/1998 super event. Since late May, westerly winds in the western equatorial Pacific have persistently strengthened and propagated eastward. Atmospheric convection has shifted to the central Pacific and intensified markedly. This two-way ocean-atmosphere coupling and coordinated development are fueling the continued strengthening of El Niño. Currently, domestic and international dynamic, statistical, and artificial intelligence model predictions are in high agreement, forecasting that the sea surface temperature index for the key Niño3.4 region could reach 2°C to 3°C this autumn and winter, meeting the criteria for a strong to powerful El Niño. The possibility of breaking historical records continues to grow.
Experts from the center noted that this El Niño event will have significant and sustained impacts on China's climate, marine ecology, and disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. Regarding typhoons, the number generated in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea is expected to be below average. However, their formation locations are predicted to be further east and south, with greater intensity, requiring a focus on preventing disasters caused by severe typhoons, such as destructive waves, storm surges, and seawater intrusion.
In terms of climate, this summer and autumn are expected to bring above-average precipitation to northern, northeastern, and parts of southern China, while the middle reaches of the Yangtze River may experience below-average rainfall. The winter season is projected to be generally warmer than average. For marine areas, sea temperatures in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and northern East China Sea are predicted to be higher than normal, with a prominent risk of localized marine heatwaves. This threatens the safety of mariculture and could exacerbate coral reef bleaching.
The National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center emphasized that heightened vigilance is warranted, as the climatic impacts of an El Niño event are often more pronounced in the following year. It is anticipated that the Yangtze River basin will experience abnormally high precipitation in the summer of 2027, posing a significant risk of extreme flooding and severe pressure on flood control efforts. Regions are urged to make advance preparations for flood prevention, marine ecological monitoring, and disaster defense to fully guard against various secondary hazards.
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