From a broader technical perspective, gold remains in a weak zone. Although prices have seen a short-term oscillating rebound, the overall bearish trend has not fundamentally reversed from a technical standpoint.
Currently, the gold price continues to trade below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (near the 4809 level), indicating persistent medium to long-term downward pressure. The MACD indicator shows that its fast line has fallen below the slow line, with both lines residing below the zero axis. The expanding negative histogram suggests that selling pressure is gradually accumulating. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering around 52. While this is a neutral zone, it also indicates that the momentum from the overbought region's decline is gradually weakening.
Analyzing the daily chart, gold found support after failing to rise further and is currently stabilizing above the 4600 level, maintaining a sideways oscillation pattern. The key support level to watch remains the 4600 integer mark, which was today's low and also the level where the previous significant decline found support before rebounding and meeting resistance. A further break below this level would shift focus to the support near the 4550 level, which was last Thursday's low.
Regarding immediate resistance, attention should be on the 4700 level, which was last Thursday's high after a探底回升 (dip-buying rebound). Further above, the 4800 level is significant as it was where last Thursday's rally peaked and reversed. Currently, the 5-day moving average has formed a golden cross pointing upwards, and the MACD indicator has also formed a golden cross, suggesting a potential rebound demand for gold. However, the KDJ and RSI indicators show their golden crosses turning downwards, indicating that any rebound is still facing significant suppression. Overall, this reflects a strong tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and the market awaits a clearer directional move.
The current price level around 4600 also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March decline, giving it significant technical importance. If gold can effectively hold above this level, a further rebound is possible. However, a break below it could trigger a more substantial correction.
In summary, although ceasefire talks between the US and Iran are providing short-term support for gold, inflationary concerns spurred by rising oil prices and market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high-interest rates continue to exert significant downward pressure on gold bulls. Combined with relatively low market liquidity and the Easter holiday period, short-term trading requires a cautious approach.
For evening short-term trading, given that 4700 is the primary resistance level, a short position can be considered near this level. A stop-loss for the short position can be placed above, around 4725. The support targets for the short position remain focused on the 4600-4630 area. The key support to watch in the evening session is the 4600 level. If this strong support holds firm and is not broken, trading within the 4600-4700 range for the day, taking both long and short positions on swings, would be the primary strategy. If the price falls below 4600 in the evening session, attention should then turn to the next support level around 4550.
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