According to estimates from commodities analytics firm Kpler, oil producers in the Arabian Gulf have lost at least $15.1 billion in oil and gas revenue since the outbreak of the US-Israel war on Iran.
Since March 1, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked millions of barrels per day of crude oil and refined petroleum products, as well as 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies.
Based on Kpler's estimates using 2025 average prices and volumes, Gulf producers have lost $15.1 billion in revenue since the war began, equivalent to $1.2 billion daily for supplies unable to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
Shortly after the war started, Qatar announced the suspension of LNG production at Ras Laffan, the world's largest liquefaction plant, and issued force majeure notices to customers.
Combined with output from the United Arab Emirates, the war has trapped 20% of global LNG supplies within the Gulf region.
The oil situation is equally severe—Gulf producers have shut in approximately 10% of daily global oil production, with losses expected to increase in the coming days and weeks as attacks on Gulf vessels and export infrastructure in Oman and Fujairah are expanding the conflict beyond the Strait of Hormuz itself.
In its monthly oil market report released on Thursday, the International Energy Agency stated that due to limited available capacity to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and nearly full storage facilities, Gulf producers have cut total oil output by at least 10 million barrels per day.
Alternative routes, such as Saudi Arabia's exports via the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea, are insufficient to offset the massive supply loss caused by the closure of the Hormuz route.
Vortexa noted last week that while Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline has a nominal capacity of 7 million barrels per day, the actual loading capacity at the Yanbu terminal is questionable, with some estimates placing it at around 3 million barrels per day.
Before the war, approximately 6 million barrels per day of Saudi Aramco's exports transited the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts stated that Saudi Arabia has suffered the largest revenue loss since the war began, but in terms of strained government finances, Iraq will be hit hardest, as it relies most heavily on oil revenue and lacks the substantial sovereign wealth buffers possessed by Kuwait, the UAE, or Saudi Arabia.
Comments