The market experienced a collective rebound yesterday, with the Shanghai Composite Index posting a significant gain and the ChiNext Index rising nearly 6%, while the STAR 50 Index surged over 6%. Trading volume expanded notably, with the combined turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges reaching 2.43 trillion yuan. Sector-wise, concepts related to the AI industry chain, computing hardware, AI applications, and precious metals were particularly active. In contrast, the oil and gas sector saw a collective adjustment. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 2.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.79%, and the ChiNext Index advanced 5.91%.
In today's broker morning briefings, CITIC Securities expressed the view that inflation in computing power is persisting, maintaining a positive outlook on cloud services and compute leasing. Huatai Securities suggested that support from the capital supply side is strengthening. Zhongtai Securities noted divergent performance in baijiu sales, with premium brands performing relatively well.
CITIC Securities highlighted that with the explosion of Agent applications and multimodal ecosystems, a mismatch between capital expenditure and computing demand is emerging. Global token usage is entering a new phase of accelerated growth. Consequently, the cloud industry chain is expected to enter a period of significant expansion over the next two years, characterized by increases in both volume and price. Within the cloud industry chain, rising demand is pushing price levels higher, signaling the start of a cycle where both volume and prices rise. Regarding compute leasing, the supply of high-quality computing chips remains tight. Leading compute leasing providers hold a distinct advantage due to their strategic positioning, and higher leverage enhances the certainty of their robust growth. The recommendation is to focus on targets within the cloud industry chain and compute leasing sectors.
Huatai Securities pointed out that structural differentiation in capital flows is currently quite evident. Attention towards the ChiNext and STAR Market boards has increased, while sectors that previously benefited from geopolitical factors and high oil prices, such as power, new energy, and coal, have seen capital withdrawals at elevated levels. Specifically, ETF fund flows showed net inflows into the STAR 50 and ChiNext Indexes, but outflows from major indices like the CSI A500 and CSI 300. Last week, the scale of share buybacks increased, with 153 companies implementing repurchases, bringing the total buyback amount up to 7.9 billion yuan from a previous 2.2 billion yuan. Meanwhile, the scale of share reductions has narrowed for two consecutive weeks, settling around a median of 4 billion yuan, down from a previous weekly average of 8 billion yuan, indicating some alleviation of pressure on the capital supply side.
Zhongtai Securities observed that baijiu sales performance during the Spring Festival period showed a "dumbbell-shaped" divergence across price segments. The premium and mass-market segments demonstrated relative stability, whereas the mid-to-high-end segment experienced a more noticeable decline, partly due to a slow recovery in business and government demand. Currently, the baijiu industry remains in a phase of clearing and bottoming out. Overall, Spring Festival sales still show a gap compared to the previous year, and distilleries continue to be in a "inventory reduction" stage. Since the first quarter, there has been a clear divergence in sales performance among baijiu companies. Leading distilleries performed significantly better during the Spring Festival period. For instance, Kweichow Moutai revitalized consumer demand through its i-Moutai channel, achieving positive pre-holiday sales momentum and driving up wholesale prices simultaneously. Feedback from Wuliangye's channels indicated that sales growth during the Spring Festival outpaced repayments, helping to digest some accumulated inventory and resulting in a generally healthy channel dynamic. Within the mid-to-high-end segment, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu showed relatively good sales performance in the first quarter, providing support for its quarterly results. Among regional baijiu brands, Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery demonstrated strong certainty in first-quarter repayments, driven by price increases for its DanYa series.
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