Overnight, spot precious metals weakened once again in the London market, with spot gold falling more than 2% to break below the $3,900 per ounce mark and hitting a fresh low for the year, facing downward pressure during intraday trading.
Domestic and international markets moved in tandem, with SHFE gold closing down 2.87%.
The selloff was driven by three factors: the U.S. dollar index rose to its highest level since April 2025; this week's CPI data came in above expectations, raising the probability of a December rate hike, with several Federal Reserve officials adopting a hawkish tone; and overnight tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated, with the U.S. stating it does not need to reach an agreement with Iran, causing crude oil to surge and further elevating inflation expectations, while rising rate hike expectations weighed on the non-yielding asset gold.
In the near term, gold is expected to remain under pressure with range-bound trading, with attention on tonight's U.S. PPI data and the U.S.-Iran situation.
On the macroeconomic front, U.S. existing home sales fell 5.5% month-over-month in October, with the annualized rate dropping to 3.75 million units, the lowest since 2010, as mortgage rates above 7% and persistently elevated inflation were the core reasons behind the decline.
Meanwhile, existing home inventory for sale in October rose to the peak level seen in the same period of 2019, and upward price momentum has clearly weakened.
Cleveland Fed President Hammack stated that progress on inflation improvement has essentially stalled and is moving "in the wrong direction," requiring further rate hikes to control inflation.
On the geopolitical front, Trump said the U.S. does not need to reach a deal with Iran; a senior Iranian official said that if U.S. forces launch attacks on Iran from Europe, their European bases would also become targets.
Last night's turbulence in U.S. equities once again placed significant pressure on the gold market.
Currently, the pricing pressure on gold from the short end mainly comes from the Federal Reserve, and with rate hike expectations and the hawkish narrative largely unchanged, gold faces considerable pressure.
The turning point may come around the time of the December rate hike, when the market may begin to price in expectations of "no more rate hikes."
Additionally, one must consider whether, given the overall trend toward easing geopolitical tensions and the near-full pricing of a December rate hike, the downward pressure on gold may have already been substantially released.
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