Market Highlights and Key Data Futures Performance: On December 10, 2025, the SHFE copper main contract opened at 91,400 yuan/ton and closed at 91,850 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous trading day. During the night session, the contract opened at 92,250 yuan/ton and closed at 91,770 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the afternoon session.
Spot Market: According to SMM, the spot price range for SMM 1# electrolytic copper was a discount of 40 yuan/ton to a premium of 100 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 30 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous day. Copper prices fluctuated between 91,510–91,890 yuan/ton. The SHFE copper main contract rose from 91,200 yuan/ton to above 91,700 yuan/ton in early trading, with the inter-month spread at C80–C40 yuan/ton. Import losses for the current month narrowed to around 1,000 yuan/ton. As the 2512 contract (the year’s final contract) approached delivery, traders closed long positions and companies faced year-end settlements, leading to concentrated selling and a rapid decline in spot premiums. Most transactions were at discounted prices, but limited low-priced supply narrowed discounts to around 40 yuan/ton. Spot trading is expected to remain pressured, with premiums likely staying slightly discounted.
Macro and Geopolitical Updates: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking its third rate cut in 2025 after similar moves in September and October. The FOMC noted moderate economic expansion, slowing job growth, slightly higher unemployment, and elevated inflation, emphasizing balanced risks to its dual mandate. Starting December 12, the Fed will initiate monthly purchases of ~$40 billion in short-term Treasury bills to maintain liquidity. Chair Powell stated that while inflation remains high, core inflation (excluding tariffs) has improved significantly. Without new tariffs, goods inflation is expected to peak in Q1 2026. He described rates as near the upper end of neutral, with policy transitioning from restrictive to neutral. Short-term Treasury purchases will remain elevated in coming months, concluding by April 15, 2026—a move seen as enhanced easing. President Trump criticized the Fed for insufficient rate cuts.
Mining Sector: On December 10, Aterian signed a binding JV with French AI exploration firm Lithosquare to launch AI-driven exploration across eight copper projects (2,898 km²) in the Kalahari Copper Belt and Anti-Atlas regions. Lithosquare will invest 1.4 million euros (initial 500,000 euros for AI targeting, geophysics, and drilling; 900,000 euros for successful targets), potentially earning a 2% NSR and up to 49.9% equity. The collaboration aims to fast-track high-value drill targets using AI modeling and data science.
Smelting and Imports: China’s "reverse invoicing" policy for resource recycling has benefited 14,800 firms, with 2025 transactions nearing 900 billion yuan. The policy supports VAT exemptions for small-scale sellers and streamlined tax filings. In the first 10 months of 2025, scrap vehicle recycling rose over 50% YoY, with 86 million units of e-waste processed, yielding 1.9 million tons of recycled materials—close to 2024’s full-year output.
Consumption: November 2025 copper tube output rose 13.55% MoM to 138,300 tons, with capacity utilization at 59.69%. Larger producers (100,000+ tons/year) saw utilization climb 10.04% to 62.34%. The increase was driven by extended production cycles and demand from e-commerce promotions (e.g., Singles’ Day) and regional project deliveries.
Inventory Data: LME copper warrants increased by 1,125 tons to 164,975 tons, while SHFE warrants fell 600 tons to 28,931 tons. Domestic spot inventories stood at 160,300 tons on December 10, up 1,400 tons weekly.
Strategy: Copper: Neutral After breaching 90,000 yuan/ton, downstream demand remains weak, and market sentiment is cautious. Prices may retreat slightly post-FOMC meeting and delivery date;观望 is advised. Arbitrage: Paused Options: Short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton
Risks: Rapid domestic demand decline; inventory buildup; overseas liquidity shocks.
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