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Gold is currently at a critical juncture for directional decision-making. The rise in gold prices fundamentally trades on a core judgment: the weak July non-farm payroll data signals that Federal Reserve policy may begin to pivot toward easing. Whether this judgment holds will directly determine the next step for gold prices. The inflation data due this week will serve as the key touchstone to test this logic. It will either confirm the policy shift signal implied by the weak employment data or completely reverse it. If inflation data is moderate, market expectations for the Fed to maintain or even shift toward easing will be further strengthened, potentially allowing gold to continue its current uptrend and push above $4,500. Conversely, if inflation significantly exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will quickly reheat, the support previously gained from a decline in rate expectations will rapidly fade, and gold prices may face significant downward pressure. Therefore, gold's short-term trend is highly dependent on the final direction for monetary policy set by this week's inflation data.
Gold today fell back to the support area around 4,360 as expected, similar to what we mentioned this morning. The pullback to the 4,360-4,370 support zone offered a long opportunity, and gold's pullback to 4,363 played out as expected, with prices rising. This follows yesterday's two consecutive gains, directly opening this week with three consecutive wins. Gold's bullish momentum remains strong, and pullbacks still present opportunities to buy. On the 1-hour chart, gold remains in a bullish trend, with the center of gravity continuously shifting higher. Pullbacks still offer buying opportunities. For the US session, we continue to focus on the 4,360 area for buying on dips. Tomorrow's CPI is extremely significant for gold. Before the CPI data, gold is expected to trade mainly in a range, but overall, as the center of gravity continues to rise, gold remains bullish, and pullbacks are opportunities to buy. In the short term, support near 4,360 is a buy zone, as long as the 4,330 level is not breached. Gold's bullish momentum is unstoppable; each upward move is a phase of accumulation, and gold's bull run is expected to continue climbing higher.
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