In July 2026, the heavy truck market posted a year-on-year increase in sales, but experienced a significant slowdown compared to the previous month. According to preliminary data from First Commercial Vehicle Network, total sales of heavy trucks in China for July reached approximately 92,000 units (wholesale sales volume, including exports and new energy vehicles). This figure represents a decline of about 21% from June, but a rise of roughly 8.4% from the 85,000 units sold in the same period last year, marking a notable deceleration in the year-on-year growth rate compared to the March-June period. Nevertheless, this is the highest sales volume for July in the past six years.
From January to July 2026, cumulative sales of heavy trucks in China amounted to approximately 753,000 units, an increase of about 21% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth in wholesale sales for July was primarily driven by continued expansion in overseas exports and a substantial surge in electric heavy truck sales. Conversely, the sequential decline from June was attributed to the impact of the heavy truck AEBS regulation change in mid-July, which led to a digestion of pre-purchased demand in July and August, combined with a seasonal downturn in domestic end-user demand, resulting in a month-on-month drop in sales.
First, driven by strong demand from markets in Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Central Asia, China's heavy truck exports continued their upward trend in July, with an estimated year-on-year increase of over 36% for the month. Second, although the growth rate of new energy heavy trucks slowed somewhat, end-user demand remained relatively robust compared to traditional fuel-powered models. Notably, in the first half of the month, due to the regulation requiring new heavy trucks to be equipped with AEBS starting July 14, there was still a rush to register vehicles and obtain operating permits in various regions, leading to a continued sharp year-on-year increase in purchases of electric heavy trucks. After mid-July, as most regions completed the regulation transition and demand turned noticeably weaker, sub-segments including electric, LNG, and diesel heavy trucks all saw significant declines in sales month-on-month. Third, due to the lack of a clear advantage in the oil-to-gas price differential, the gas-powered heavy truck segment showed no signs of recovery in July, with sales experiencing a double-digit year-on-year decline as the market entered its off-season.
Electric truck growth slows, while gas-powered trucks remain dormant
In July 2026, China's heavy truck market achieved its fifth consecutive month of year-on-year growth. How did the sub-segments of natural gas heavy trucks and new energy heavy trucks perform? Due to the regulation change, which caused a large number of new heavy trucks to be registered and insured in May and June, actual end-user sales in the domestic heavy truck market are estimated to have declined slightly year-on-year in July. The market is clearly slowing, with a sequential drop of nearly 25% compared to June.
Looking first at natural gas heavy trucks, their sales trends are primarily determined by the oil-to-gas price differential. From late June to late July, the refueling price of LNG for vehicles fell somewhat, dropping from around 7 yuan per kilogram to 5.5-5.8 yuan in northern regions. However, oil prices also fluctuated up and down during this period. Considering that many private gas stations offer diesel prices as low as just over 5 yuan per liter, the oil-to-gas price differential remained insignificant in July. With an unremarkable price differential, gas-powered heavy trucks lacked an economic advantage over diesel trucks, preventing a year-on-year reversal in sales. Based on domestic end-user data, sales of natural gas heavy trucks in July are estimated to have fallen by about 28% month-on-month and nearly 40% year-on-year, with the domestic penetration rate dropping to around 13-14%. For gas-powered heavy trucks to achieve a "turnaround from the brink," they will need to rely on further declines in LNG prices. If the price can drop to 4-5 yuan per kilogram, the economic advantages would be fully realized, enabling end-user sales in this sub-market to emerge from the trough.
Turning to new energy heavy trucks, demand driven by the replacement of National IV and National V trucks, the AEBS regulation change, and fluctuations in oil and gas prices led to explosive growth in domestic new energy heavy truck sales in the second quarter of 2026. However, this sub-market also faced a sequential decline starting in July, particularly after mid-month. In July, end-user sales of new energy heavy trucks are expected to have grown by about 68% year-on-year (lower than the 104% and 108% growth rates in May and June), with a sequential decline of about 25%, indicating a clear slowdown. While the new energy heavy truck market is expected to continue its rapid growth (year-on-year) in the second half of this year, the off-season months of July and August will see a certain decline compared to May and June, and August may well be the "trough" for this sub-segment in the second half of the year.
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