Following a surge that propelled gold prices to near $4,698 per ounce, setting a new all-time high, the rally has entered a fresh phase, prompting a revised long-term forecast from renowned economist Steve Hanke.
In a post on the social media platform X on Monday, Hanke stated he anticipates the peak of this bull market for gold to reach approximately $6,000 per ounce. He characterizes this upward move as part of a broader monetary cycle rather than a short-term reaction to crisis events.
Hanke's outlook continues the perspective he has maintained in recent months. He believes the primary drivers behind gold's ascent are structural monetary forces. He has repeatedly pointed to a disordered global central banking system, eroding confidence in fiat currencies, and the persistent weakness of the U.S. dollar as the core factors fueling the price increase. In his analysis, the applied economist and Johns Hopkins University professor noted that markets remain overly focused on interest rate policy while underestimating the impact of expanding money supply, which he views as the main source of inflationary pressures and long-term currency debasement.
Meanwhile, recent market dynamics have further strengthened gold's upward momentum. Prices soared over 1.5% on Monday. As geopolitical tensions escalated, market concerns were ignited after former U.S. President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on several European countries against the backdrop of a dispute related to Greenland.
On January 17, Trump stated on his social platform, Truth Social, that a 10% tariff would be imposed on all goods exported to the U.S. from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, effective February 1, 2026. The tariff rate would increase to 25% starting June 1, 2026. Trump indicated this tariff measure would remain in place until an agreement is reached for the "complete and total purchase of Greenland."
The prospect of potential retaliatory tariffs from the EU has heightened uncertainty, driving investors toward traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver. According to informed sources, EU member states are discussing various countermeasures, including imposing retaliatory tariffs on $108 billion worth of U.S. goods. The sources added that other options under discussion include invoking a powerful mechanism known as the "anti-coercion instrument."
Beyond geopolitical factors, several fundamental elements continue to support further gains for gold. Increasing expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have reduced the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Central banks have also been significant buyers, adding hundreds of tons to their foreign exchange reserves as part of a broader "de-dollarization" diversification effort.
Propelled by these forces, gold prices surged over 60% last year, reflecting robust demand amid persistent macroeconomic and policy uncertainties.
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