Each effort to bolster the Japanese yen is simultaneously creating fresh openings for selling it. The unprecedented joint intervention between the U.S. and Japan last month did little to reverse the underlying forces weighing on the currency, and within less than two weeks, the yen was again approaching the 160 mark against the U.S. dollar.
The core issue remains the vast interest rate gap between Japan and other nations. Investors can borrow low-yielding yen and use those funds to purchase higher-yielding assets, a strategy known as a carry trade. This means that when intervention pushes the yen higher, investors get a better price to sell the currency.
According to market observers like JPMorgan Private Bank and State Street Bank and Trust Company, hedge funds had halved their bearish bets on the yen by August 4. However, some investors are now starting to return to yen-funded carry trades. One such investor is Ashwin Binwani, founder of private investment firm Alpha Binwani Capital, who bought U.S. dollars when the USD/JPY was around 157 and has profited as the yen weakened. The USD/JPY currently stands at 159.46.
"Intervention provides a fantastic opportunity to sell the yen at a higher level," Binwani said. "We are not afraid of their actions. The carry trade opportunity is too good to pass up."
This opportunity carries considerable risk. As investors rebuild their short positions, the likelihood of another intervention by authorities increases. Yet, the factors pressuring the yen remain intact. Japan's policy rate of 1% is lower than that of most developed economies, a situation exacerbated by fiscal concerns. Over the past week, the yen has erased half of the gains made from the intervention and has weakened against nearly all major currencies.
This year, shorting the yen against higher-yielding currencies like the Colombian peso, Turkish lira, and Norwegian krone has delivered returns exceeding 10% for each pair. Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street, noted that the bank's proprietary data shows real-money accounts still hold carry trade positions, with the yen being sold against a range of G10 currencies. He highlighted that the most closely watched trade is the yen against the Australian dollar, followed by the yen against the euro, U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, and British pound.
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