On January 19, the US dollar index performed as expected last week, rebounding upwards after testing the 98.70 support level and closing the week with a positive candlestick. From a technical perspective, the outlook remains bullish above 98.70, with a medium-term target of 102.40. This month, significant resistance is anticipated in the 99.70/99.80 zone; failure to decisively break above this area warrants caution for a potential renewed downward pressure. A successful breach, however, would signal a continuation of the rebound towards the 102.40 region. Consequently, this week's focus is on the 98.70-99.70 range, awaiting a decisive breakout. Prior to such a move, a range-bound, slightly bullish strategy is suggested; a break below would then necessitate assessing further downside potential. Specific trading recommendations are not provided for this week. Holders of long positions from last week can move their stop-loss to breakeven to manage risk, while those without positions are advised to adopt a wait-and-see approach. This framework is for reference only; trading carries inherent risks.
The Euro's overall framework from last week proved correct, although Monday's stronger-than-anticipated rebound resulted in entry prices being slightly low; executing the strategy precisely would have resulted in a stop-loss being triggered at the high. The bearish framework remains intact below the 1.1700 level. Last week's target of 1.1580 has been met. This week, key support is identified around the 1.1540 level; a decisive break below this point would significantly increase the likelihood of further declines, making the medium-term target of 1.1320 more probable. For right-side trading this week, attention should be paid to the strong resistance zone of 1.1650-1.1660. A renewed four-hour chart sell signal emerging in this area could present a short-selling opportunity, with a stop-loss placed above the signal's origin and targets at 1.1540, 1.1470, and 1.1320. An aggressive strategy suggests entering short directly upon the price reaching the 1.1650-1.1660 zone, with a stop-loss at 1.1700 and targets at 1.1580 and 1.1540, extending further to 1.1470 and 1.1320 if 1.1540 is breached. Position sizing and strict stop-loss discipline are essential.
Gold surged directly on Monday last week, aligning with the bullish forecast and reaching the target of 4688. The chart indicates that gold remains in a clear uptrend, having gapped higher and reached new highs on the Monday open for three consecutive weeks. Therefore, this week's key focus is the 4624 level, today's opening price, which now serves as crucial strong support. Above this level, the bias remains bullish, with resistance eyed at 4721 and 4755. A fall back below 4624 would warrant attention for a potential loss of upward momentum and the emergence of a corrective phase. Conservative traders should observe. An aggressive trading suggestion is to consider longs around 4645, with a stop-loss at 4620, targeting 4721 and 4755. Given gold's persistent new highs, it is critical to trail stop-losses closely on long positions in this area to guard against a market reversal. Control position size and maintain strict stop-losses.
Silver advanced as anticipated last week, also reaching the target of 89.45. The chart currently depicts a clear uptrend, yet one must remain vigilant for potential reversal signals. Early this week, continue monitoring last week's pullback low around 86.10 as key support. Above this level, the trend bias remains bullish. However, a breach below this zone would likely signal a return to a consolidation phase for silver, reducing the probability of new highs being set in the near term. Conservative traders are advised to watch from the sidelines this week. Aggressive traders may still consider buying on dips, but must employ tight stop-losses to protect against a trend change. An aggressive, light-position trial suggestion is to buy around the 91.50 area, with a stop-loss at 86.00, targeting 98.40 and 101.20. Manage risk carefully and adhere to strict stop-loss discipline.
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