Global oil prices climbed on Wednesday, with Brent crude approaching the $100 per barrel threshold. Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran have intensified concerns that energy shipments from the Middle East could face further disruptions.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for October delivery advanced 1.75% to settle at $94.66 per barrel, while the international benchmark Brent crude futures rose 1.55% to trade at $99.44 per barrel. In a statement, US Central Command said American forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday in retaliation for an attack on a US Navy vessel. The warship successfully evaded the Iranian assault, with no American personnel reported injured.
Where the market could head next
Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, noted that the US-Iran conflict has now entered its seventh month with no sign of de-escalation. Citing the growing frequency of attacks on shipping, he flagged an elevated risk of oil prices surging past $120 per barrel. When asked whether such a move is plausible, Struyven stated in an interview: "That scenario is entirely possible."
Goldman's base-case outlook still anticipates a gradual recovery in Persian Gulf crude exports as producers adapt, including by shifting to alternative shipping routes and eventually expanding pipeline capacity. However, Struyven acknowledged that recent developments have raised the probability of a more bullish scenario for oil prices: a prolonged halt in export volumes over the coming months.
"Events over the past few days genuinely point to an alternative upside path, where crude exports stall for several months and Brent breaks above $120 per barrel," Struyven said. "As strikes on shipping intensify and broaden in scope, the likelihood of that outcome is undoubtedly rising."
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