On Monday, August 4, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield settled at 4.681%, while the policy-sensitive 2-year yield closed at 4.246%. Spot gold opened with a gap higher but subsequently surrendered its gains, briefly dipping below the $4020 level. A late-session rebound saw the precious metal finish the day up 0.31% at $4055.25 per ounce. Spot silver crossed the $58 threshold, ending with a 0.93% gain at $58.19 per ounce. Geopolitical risk premiums cooled rapidly, triggering a sharp decline in international oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude plunged over 8% at the open, oscillated within a range, and ultimately closed 7.42% lower at $78.72 per barrel. Brent crude finished the session down 5.92% at $83.07 per barrel.
The gold market was influenced by weekend fundamentals, opening higher at $4081.6 per ounce. It recorded a modest high of $4083.2 before undergoing a forceful decline, reaching a daily low of $4018.8. Prices later recovered, and the daily candlestick closed at $4054.7, forming a hammer-like pattern with a long lower wick. This closing structure suggests gold remains within a lateral consolidation phase. Analysis indicates the yellow metal is fluctuating in a low range. The market's next direction depends on a breakout from this established band. The current tactical approach involves selling into strength and buying on weakness within this range. Key resistance is identified in the $4080-$4120 zone, with support lying between $4018 and $4000.
U.S. crude oil opened lower on Monday at $79.56 per barrel. It initially rallied to $81.55 before meeting resistance and pulling back. The session bottomed at $78.62, with prices consolidating to a close at $80.26. The daily candle formed a spinning top with a slightly longer upper wick, indicating that crude is still in an adjustment phase. After the gap-down opening and subsequent oscillation, a resistance zone has formed at the initial gap level. The near-term focus is on whether prices will face selling pressure at this resistance. The recommended strategy is to favor short positions on rallies, supplemented by buying on dips. Upside resistance is seen in the $82.7-$83.7 region, with support between $79.5 and $78.0.
The Nasdaq index opened higher at 28,482.14 on Monday. It initially advanced to 28,573.73 before a sharp sell-off drove prices to a daily low of 28,181.42. A powerful late-session rally lifted the index to a high of 28,839.88, and it ultimately closed at 28,791.49. This action formed a medium bullish candle with an exceptionally long lower shadow. The sustainability of this bullish momentum warrants close observation. Having stabilized and rallied from recent low levels, the index is showing considerable strength. The key question is whether this upward momentum can be maintained. The suggested tactical approach is to lean towards selling into strength, while also considering buying on dips. Upside resistance is monitored at the 29,000-$29,200 zone, with support situated between $28,600 and $28,300.
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