Metals ETF Surges Again as Gold Hits Record High Amid U.S. Ceasefire Proposal

Deep News03-25

The Huabao Metals ETF (159876) surged nearly 4% on March 25, following a 3.16% gain the previous day. The fund reclaimed its 5-day moving average and semi-annual moving average during the session, signaling a potential reversal after nine consecutive days of declines.

Gold-related stocks led the advance. Xingye Yinyin Tin rose over 8%, while Hunan Silver gained more than 7%. Shares including Shanjin International, Chifeng Gold, and Yunnan Germanium also moved higher. Among heavyweight components, Zijin Mining and China Molybdenum each climbed over 5%, Shandong Gold advanced more than 4%, with Aluminum Corp of China and China Northern Rare Earth also posting gains.

Market sentiment was buoyed by reports that the United States is considering a one-month ceasefire with Iran to discuss a 15-point agreement covering nuclear programs, missile capabilities, and regional issues. Global assets rallied on the news, while oil prices retreated sharply. International benchmark crude oil fell below $90 per barrel. Meanwhile, spot gold prices surged, breaking above $4,500 per ounce.

CITIC Securities noted that following the resolution of Middle East geopolitical events, gold prices have historically reached new highs. The medium-term trend for gold ultimately depends on U.S. dollar credibility and liquidity conditions. The current environment of ample liquidity and a weakening dollar is expected to continue supporting gold prices. Historically, valuation advantages have also amplified upside potential for gold stocks.

Additional support for gold came from the World Gold Council, whose global central bank head Shaokai Fan stated on March 24 that gold's role as a hedge against de-dollarization and geopolitical risks is expected to drive central banks that have been absent from the market to purchase the precious metal this year. He mentioned that central banks in countries including Guatemala, Indonesia, and Malaysia have recently begun buying gold, either returning after a long pause or making their first-ever purchases.

Huatai Securities expressed optimism about the rebound potential in the metals sector. For gold, historical patterns show quick rebounds after geopolitical conflicts end, with continued central bank buying providing a price floor. For industrial metals, tight copper mine supply and declining domestic inventories, along with unpriced capacity risks for aluminum in the Middle East, maintain fundamental support. For minor metals, including rare earths, tungsten, molybdenum, and cobalt, geopolitical tensions are strengthening strategic reserve and military inventory expectations. With supply highly concentrated in China and difficult to replace externally, these metals demonstrate strong resilience and medium-term allocation value, making post-decline recovery opportunities worth watching.

The Huabao Metals ETF (159876) and its feeder funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) track an index covering copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, lithium, and other sectors. The fund provides exposure to precious metals (for hedging), strategic metals (for growth), and industrial metals (for recovery) across different cycles, offering comprehensive sector beta. The ETF is also a margin trading security, making it an efficient tool for gaining exposure to the metals sector.

As of the end of February, the Huabao Metals ETF had a net asset value of 2.427 billion yuan, with average daily trading volume exceeding 100 million yuan over the past month. Among three ETFs tracking the same index, it leads in both size and liquidity.

Investors are reminded that recent market volatility may be elevated, and short-term performance does not indicate future results. Investments should be made rationally based on individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance, with careful attention to position sizing and risk management.

ETF fee note: Subscription and redemption agents may charge a commission of up to 0.5%. Trading fees are determined by the securities firm. The ETF does not charge a sales service fee.

Feeder fund fee note: For Class A shares, a subscription fee of 1% applies for amounts under 1 million yuan, 0.6% for 1-2 million yuan, and a flat 1,000 yuan for 2 million yuan and above. Redemption fees are 1.5% for holdings under 7 days and 0% thereafter, with no sales service fee. Class C shares have no subscription fee, a 1.5% redemption fee for holdings under 7 days (0% thereafter), and a 0.3% sales service fee.

Risk disclosure: The Huabao Metals ETF passively tracks the CSI Metals Index, which has a base date of December 31, 2013, and was launched on July 13, 2015. The index's performance for the past five full years is: 2021: 35.89%; 2022: -19.22%; 2023: -10.43%; 2024: 2.96%; 2025: 91.67%. Index constituents are adjusted according to its methodology, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Constituent mentions are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or reflect fund holdings. The fund manager assesses this fund as R3-medium risk, suitable for balanced (C3) and higher risk profile investors. suitability should be confirmed with the sales institution. All information provided is for reference only, and investors are responsible for their investment decisions. No liability is accepted for any direct or indirect losses resulting from the use of this content. Fund investments carry risks; past performance does not indicate future results, and other funds managed by the manager do not guarantee this fund's performance. Invest with caution.

A MACD golden cross has formed, indicating positive momentum for these stocks.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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