From runner-up last year to champion this year, Guotai Junan Securities' Zi Meng team has achieved steady progress in the fiercely competitive food and beverage research field, underpinned by deep consumer trend insights and continuous refinement of their research framework.
On November 28, the 2025 Analyst Conference and 7th Sina Finance "Golden Qilin" Best Analyst Awards ceremony concluded successfully in Shanghai. At this annual capital markets event, Guotai Junan's Zi Meng research team was crowned the top food and beverage sector analyst.
This honor signifies industry recognition of the team's research capabilities and market influence over the past year. The winning team members include Zi Meng, Yan Huijing, Xu Yang, Yao Shijia, Li Yao, Cheng Bisheng, Zhang Yuxuan, Chen Liyu, Li Meiyi, Pang Yuze, Miao Xin, Zhang Jiaying, Yang Liu, Yan Qinghui, and Li Yibing.
The team's ascent has been steady and clear. In the 6th (2024) Golden Qilin awards, they emerged as runner-up in the food and beverage sector behind Huachuang Securities' Ouyang Yu team, demonstrating strong competitive potential. Just one year later in the 7th (2025) awards, they achieved a breakthrough to claim top spot. The competitive landscape also shifted significantly, with GF Securities' Fu Rong team ranking second and Huachuang's Ouyang Yu team dropping to fourth.
Sina Finance summarized Guotai Junan's latest views: Zi Meng believes China's baijiu sector is in an accelerated adjustment phase with inventory levels declining after hitting bottom in sales. Stock prices may see volatile upside amid pessimistic market expectations. For 2025, beer industry consolidation is expected to precede baijiu, with sector differentiation becoming more pronounced. Investors should focus on regional beer leaders with competitive advantages.
Guotai Junan | F&B: Cyclical Bottoming, Awaiting Reversal - Livestock Tracking Report Report highlights: Raw milk prices have stabilized at bottom with strong upside potential in 2026. Beef cattle cycle may extend, creating profit elasticity for livestock companies through dual-cycle resonance.
Investment recommendations: 1) Raw milk prices have bottomed with strong 2026 upside potential as supply-side expansion fades and restocking slows, while demand benefits from primary/processed capacity releases. 2) Continued reduction in breeding cattle inventory suggests beef cycle may extend to 2027. 3) Dual-cycle resonance could drive significant profit elasticity.
Key points: - Raw milk prices show signs of stabilization with seasonal mismatches and new sterilization standards supporting a September rebound. Post-holiday prices remain firm with November continuing bottoming trends. China's 70%+ self-sufficiency rate and major players like Yili and Mengniu expanding processing capacity should further boost demand. - Breeding cattle inventory declined 2.4% YoY in Q3 2025 to 99.32 million head. The long beef production cycle suggests tight supply may persist through 2027. While US tariffs on Brazilian beef initially boosted Chinese imports, November policy easing may reduce this impact. Pending import restriction investigations could further support domestic demand. - Profit drivers: 1) Gross margin upside from milk price recovery (10-20% price increases could boost leading dairy farmers' margins by 6-10 percentage points) and cost controls. 2) Biological asset valuation improvements from higher milk prices, lower feeding costs and herd structure optimization.
Risks: Inventory reduction/pricing recovery falling short, feed cost volatility, food safety issues.
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