Circle reported a staggering 412% surge in fourth-quarter profits, with revenue climbing 77% year-over-year. The CEO believes the current period may represent a "singularity moment" for the AI economy, where USDC is poised to become the core transaction medium. A testnet version, Circle Gateway, tailored for AI agents, has been released.
Following robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025, highlighted by a 412% profit surge, stablecoin giant Circle is deeply integrating its extensive USDC network with the rapidly expanding "AI agent economy," aiming to construct the next-generation global economic operating system.
On February 25, 2026, Circle held its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings call. Co-founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire, alongside CFO Jeremy Fox-Geen, presented the latest financial data, business growth, and a new strategic vision centered on AI agent payments.
The quarter saw core profit metrics skyrocket, driven by significant increases in USDC circulation and on-chain transaction volume. Notably, management devoted substantial discussion to the future convergence of AI and cryptocurrency, opening new avenues for growth and valuation perspectives.
Q4 EBITDA skyrocketed 412%, demonstrating strong fundamental expansion. In terms of performance, total revenue and reserve income reached $770 million, a 77% increase year-over-year, surpassing analyst expectations of $747 million. Net profit jumped to $133.4 million from $4.4 million in the same period last year, with earnings per share at $0.43, far exceeding Wall Street's forecast of $0.16. Adjusted EBITDA reached $167 million, a dramatic 412% increase, also significantly beating the consensus estimate of $129.7 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin stood at a high 54%.
Revenue growth was primarily fueled by increased USDC issuance. However, high operational leverage and a low profit base from a $60 million one-time distribution payment in Q4 2024 contributed to the profit surge. CFO Jeremy Fox-Geen stated, "Adjusted EBITDA grew 412% year-over-year to $167 million, reflecting the operational leverage inherent in our model. The prior year's adjusted EBITDA included the one-time distribution payment I mentioned earlier."
Key business metrics showed USDC circulation reaching $75.3 billion by the end of 2025, a 72% annual increase, outpacing the growth of the entire fiat-backed stablecoin market. Furthermore, on-platform USDC (held within Circle's infrastructure) grew 5.6 times year-end to $12.5 billion, accounting for 17% of total circulation. The Q4 reserve asset yield was 3.8%, with distribution costs at $461 million, up 52% year-over-year.
The increase in network usage and velocity was even more striking. Q4 on-chain USDC transaction volume approached $12 trillion, a 247% annual increase. Transactions via the key cross-chain transfer infrastructure, CCTP, exceeded $41 billion, growing 3.7 times year-over-year. CEO Allaire emphasized, "For USDC, CCTP handles nearly all cross-chain transfers, and we've captured over 50% of all cross-chain bridged volume we track. In fact, in January, that figure reached 62%."
For 2026 guidance, management expects USDC to grow at a 40% compound annual growth rate over a multi-year, cross-cycle period. Other revenue for fiscal 2026 is projected between $150 million and $170 million, with adjusted operating expenses between $570 million and $585 million.
Betting on the "Singularity Moment": AI Agents as the Largest Growth Increment. During the call, discussion around "AI Agents" arguably overshadowed traditional business lines. Circle posits that the AI explosion represents not just technological advancement but a reshaping of economic operations, with USDC serving as the core settlement currency for this new economy.
Allaire presented a compelling viewpoint in his opening remarks: "We are entering a world where, in my view, there may be tens or even hundreds of billions of AI agents interacting on the internet and performing economic functions. This seems likely to drive the greatest acceleration of economic activity never seen before in human history."
With the emergence of open-source autonomous agent systems like OpenClaw, there is an urgent need for a reliable, low-cost medium of exchange for agent-to-agent transactions (e.g., AI hiring each other, purchasing computing power, or data). Allaire noted, "Virtually all the AI payment infrastructure we see, agent-to-agent type activity, is happening on blockchain. And it's happening with USDC."
To capture this potentially "take-off" market, Circle has released a testnet version of Circle Gateway, specifically designed for autonomous agents. Allaire revealed this feature "allows agents to autonomously and programmatically automate cross-chain USDC transactions, with a transaction cost of just one-hundredth of a cent, transferring value in less than a second."
Addressing questions about the timing of the AI economy's emergence, Allaire referenced futurist perspectives: "Recently, Kurzweil Brothers suggested that Q1 2026 might be the take-off moment for the singularity, a point we might look back on... In a world with tens or hundreds of billions of AI agents, the velocity of money will be orders of magnitude higher than in the existing economic system."
Arc Mainnet Approaching: Leap from Stablecoin Issuer to "Economic Operating System". Beyond the AI narrative, Circle's developing Layer-1 blockchain network, Arc, is another cornerstone for future growth. Arc is not only a high-performance channel built for AI agents but also key to Circle's evolution from a single stablecoin network into a comprehensive "economic operating system."
Currently, the Arc testnet is live, attracting over 100 leading financial and technology companies for testing. Total transaction volume has exceeded $166 million, with average daily transactions around $2.3 million, achieving nearly 100% uptime. The mainnet is expected to launch officially in 2026.
Regarding the closely watched tokenization trend, Arc holds high strategic importance. Allaire explained, "We truly see Arc as a liquidity and distribution hub for other asset issuers... Whether you are issuing tokenized equity, tokenized funds, tokenized bank deposits, or new stablecoins, you can issue on Arc and then enable liquidity and distribution across other blockchain networks."
Furthermore, Circle's penetration into traditional mainstream markets is accelerating. Registered financial institutions on the Circle Payments Network (CPN) increased from 29 in Q3 to 55, with annualized transaction volume reaching $5.7 billion, a 68% increase from the Q3 update. The company also established a formal partnership with the world's largest prediction market, Polymarket, and received conditional approval for a digital currency bank. Coupled with regulatory tailwinds like the GENIUS Act, Circle is entering a golden window for mainstream institutional adoption.
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