Special Topic: Focusing on the 2026 Fund Third-Quarter Reports: Favoring Certainty Assets! Technology Investment Returns to a Fundamentals Perspective. As the 2026 fund third-quarter reports enter their disclosure period, the performance picture for active equity funds over the first three quarters is gradually emerging.
So far, 1,821 funds across the market have disclosed their third-quarter reports, including more than 670 active equity funds. Based on the funds already disclosed, active equity fund performance divergence is striking, with Chuangjin Hexin Specialized and Innovative A posting the highest third-quarter return at 76.74%, while Penghua Manufacturing Upgrade A suffered a loss of nearly 50%, a gap of more than 127 percentage points between the top and bottom performers. After entering October, market volatility increased, and high-return products generally saw pullbacks, adding further uncertainty to performance.
In this intensifying performance competition, the moves of 10-billion-yuan active equity funds, which serve as the market's "ballast," are particularly noteworthy. As of the latest update, among the 10-billion-yuan active equity fund camp, only Galaxy Innovation Growth A has been the first to lift its veil.
As of the third quarter, the fund's year-to-date return reached 31.46%, with its interval net value exceeding the benchmark return by 30.53 percentage points. The fund's scale reached 12.833 billion yuan and is jointly managed by fund managers Yuan Xi and Zhu Jianhui.
Data source: WIND. The third-quarter report shows that the fund has a high degree of holding concentration, with the top ten heavyweight stocks together accounting for as much as 87% of the fund's net asset value. Specifically, the heavyweight stocks are almost entirely semiconductor and related industry chain names, including 3PEAK, SG Micro, ASR Microelectronics-U, ChangXin Technology, Hygon Information, Cambricon, Hua Hong Grace, SMIC, Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment, and Naura Technology.
Data source: WIND. During the reporting period, the fund made appropriate adjustments to its sub-sector structure, increasing its holdings in SG Micro and Hua Hong Grace, newly entering ASR Microelectronics-U and ChangXin Technology, while reducing its holdings in 3PEAK, SMIC, Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment, and Naura Technology.
The fund manager stated in the third-quarter report that the allocation remains in the technology field with innovative attributes, with the main investment direction being hard technology, primarily the semiconductor industry chain. Going forward, it will continue investment in the innovation field, focus on industry trends and company fundamental research, remain bullish on the AI industry chain and domestic semiconductor industry over the long term, and continue to maintain optimism about the prospects for localization.
However, the highly concentrated semiconductor holdings also put pressure on the fund during October's market volatility. As of October 23, its year-to-date return had fallen back to 14.54%.
According to market-wide third-quarter report statistics, as of the third quarter, there were still 69 active equity 10-billion-yuan funds, and their scale divergence was similarly significant. Among them, Orient Artificial Intelligence Theme A, Yongying Technology Smart Selection A, and Yongying Pioneer Semiconductor Smart Selection A each exceeded 32 billion yuan in scale, firmly ranking among the top three active equity funds across the market by scale. From their names, it is not difficult to see that these massive 10-billion-yuan funds are also highly concentrated in hot tracks such as technology, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors.
It is worth noting that performance within the 10-billion-yuan camp presents a tale of two extremes. As of the third quarter, among 10-billion-yuan active equity funds, the best year-to-date return belonged to E Fund Supply Reform, with a return as high as 116%, and across the market, 18 10-billion-yuan funds posted returns exceeding 50%. However, at the other end of the market, some 10-billion-yuan funds are mired in losses, with Yongying High-End Equipment Smart Selection A, at the bottom of the rankings, down 32%, Yongying Advanced Manufacturing Smart Selection A down 26%, and E Fund Blue Chip Selection also down 22%.
As third-quarter report disclosure enters its密集 period, the market will also look forward to more quarterly views and position adjustment paths from 10-billion-yuan fund managers. CITIC Securities stated that the pullback in the AI trend is not the beginning of a bear market, and non-AI sectors may instead face a more favorable environment. The core point is that the AI industry in the short term does not broadly drive other sectors of the economy as past industrial trends did, and instead creates considerable negative externalities for other economic sectors, such as surging materials and resource prices, sharply rising interest rates, and job displacement. This also means that the past experience that "the end of an industrial trend rally equals a turn from bull to bear" may no longer apply, as many non-AI sectors have already entered a downward trend. At present, whether it is the second-order valuation correction of the AI sector or the valuation contraction of non-AI sectors, the main valuation contraction process is expected to be completed this year. Looking ahead, after deep adjustments, the probability is higher that divergence will gradually converge and market breadth will expand.
Guotai Haitong Securities stated that looking ahead, the market does not have excessively low expectations, and the market is expected to strengthen toward the end of the year and the beginning of next year. Last week, the market index briefly adjusted to between 3500 and 3600, and in terms of space, the adjustment has basically been sufficient. Going forward, there should not be excessively low expectations for the market index. It is expected that over the next one to two quarters, the Chinese market may maintain a relatively prolonged sideways consolidation pattern. From a time perspective, after a sharp decline, objectively speaking, the recovery and stabilization of investment confidence in the Chinese market will take some time, and the market is expected to strengthen toward the end of the year and the beginning of next year. First, along with the adjustment in Chinese stocks, market stabilization forces have also strengthened simultaneously, sending a clear signal of managing downside risks and downside space in the market, avoiding the spread from局部 problems to overall risk, so the market will not have excessively low expectations. Second, although microstructural obstacles in the Chinese market still exist, unlike 2015 and 2022, this round of stock market decline does not involve an overall deterioration in market microstructure, but is mainly limited to some heavily technology-weighted stocks. Since the correction in technology stocks in July, their total market capitalization has fallen significantly, and their drag on the index has also diminished at the margin. Finally, objectively speaking, due to the temporary lack of a major growth narrative, incremental capital entering the market has shifted into observation and stagnation, and the uncertainty in risk assessment, especially regarding international relations, has not materially declined. After a short-term market bottom, the market will still be in a stage of volatility and stabilization. However, related factors will also improve toward the end of the year and the beginning of next year, and drive the market to strengthen again. In terms of allocation, the valuation risk of technology stocks has been substantially released. Once the microstructure improves, the effectiveness of value discovery is expected to gradually return. Industry comparison should focus on directions with "healthy microstructure" plus "expectations that can be revised upward," such as emerging technology, continuously increasing overseas market share, strategic resources, and stable dividends.
A MACD golden cross signal has formed, and these stocks are rising well!
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