Protein Meal:
On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans were nearly flat, continuing to be weighed down by the crude oil market, while investors reassessed U.S. weather, geopolitical risks, and export prospects. Soybean meal futures were mixed, while soybean oil declined. A recent crop report indicated the U.S. soybean good-to-excellent rating was 66%, meeting market expectations. The emergence rate reached 93% and blooming was at 9%, both figures exceeding last year's levels and the five-year average, signaling favorable early growth. Domestically, protein meal prices moved within a range, tracking import cost fluctuations. Spot market activity was subdued, with participants adopting a wait-and-see approach. Data from MySteel showed soybean inventories rose last week, as did soymeal stocks, while unfilled contracts declined.
Edible Oils:
On Tuesday, BMD palm oil fell, pressured by weakness in competing edible oils and profit-taking by traders. Shipping data indicated Malaysian palm oil exports for June 1-20 increased by 19.1% to 78.53% month-on-month, which helped limit the downside. Canola futures rose for a second consecutive session, supported by a technical rebound, a weaker Canadian dollar, and wet weather conditions. The crude oil market remained weak due to supply pressures. In the domestic market, edible oil prices traded within a range amid light trading volume. The market is grappling with mixed factors, with macro and fundamental influences intertwined, warranting attention to fund flows. Domestic supply is ample, spot demand is sluggish, and the market performance is soft. The spot market continues to exert downward pressure on futures.
Live Hogs:
On Tuesday, the nearby live hog futures contract faced downward pressure, while the main September 2026 contract remained stable, continuing its low-level consolidation. In the spot market, mainstream transaction prices in Heilongjiang were 9.16 yuan/kg, 9.28 yuan/kg in Jilin, and 9.45 yuan/kg in Liaoning, all unchanged from the previous day. The mainstream price in Inner Mongolia was 9.38 yuan/kg. The average ex-farm price in Guangdong was 10.53 yuan/kg, with large-scale farms quoting between 10.2 and 11.00 yuan/kg. The average price in Guangxi was 9.29 yuan/kg, with large-scale farms quoting between 9.2 and 9.7 yuan/kg. Technically, following three consecutive days of decline last week, sentiment in the September contract has turned bearish, with prices expected to show weak, range-bound movement in the short term.
Eggs:
On Tuesday, nearby egg futures continued to decline, while the main August 2026 contract stabilized, closing up 0.76% at 4,378 yuan per 500 kilograms. In terms of inter-month performance, deferred contracts were stronger than nearby ones. Spot prices, according to SCI data, averaged 4.34 yuan/jin nationwide, down 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous day. In production areas, Ningjin pink-shell eggs were at 4.2 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin), and Heishan brown-shell eggs were at 4.2 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin). In consumption areas, Puxi brown-shell eggs were at 4.58 yuan/jin (down 0.11 yuan/jin), and Guangzhou brown-shell eggs were at 4.65 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin). Terminal demand remains weak, leading to a continued decline in spot prices. For futures, after a significant correction over two trading sessions, prices stabilized yesterday, suggesting limited downside in the near term. It is recommended to close short positions for profit and adopt a wait-and-see approach, looking for long opportunities during the third-quarter peak season once the market stabilizes. Short-term focus should be on market sentiment and spot prices, while medium-to-long term attention should be on changes in breeder restocking and culling attitudes and their impact on supply.
Corn:
On Tuesday, the main September 2026 corn contract faced downward pressure. On Monday, it closed with a small bearish candle featuring a long upper shadow, and Tuesday's trading range shifted lower. During the holiday period, corn prices at northern ports were largely stable, with limited arrivals and still-unoptimistic transaction volumes. Downstream enterprises and corn deep-processing plants showed tepid purchasing interest, and sales channels for northeastern grain remained sluggish. Short-term corn prices in the northeast are expected to remain under pressure. In northern China, corn prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Activity at the grassroots level is still not high, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing. Arrivals at deep-processing plants are uneven, leading to minor price adjustments based on individual company situations. Market participants are monitoring the pace of trader shipments and the release of policy grain. In consumption areas, corn market quotes are constrained in both directions, with overall trading subdued. Traders are mainly observing, receiving goods in small, staggered batches without building long-term inventories, allowing for minor price negotiations. Feed enterprises are prioritizing wheat and imported grains in their formulations, maintaining only minimal safety stocks for corn and purchasing at pressured prices. Technically, stable spot corn quotes were followed by a rise and subsequent fall in the main contract, dampening bullish expectations. The weighted open interest for corn contracts has declined from 2.2 million to 1.75 million, indicating speculative capital exiting the market. With no prominent conflict between bulls and bears, futures prices are expected to maintain a weak, consolidating trend.
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