On October 20-22, by the banks of Shanghai's Huangpu River, the 2026 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference returns once again. Nobel and Turing Award winners will share insights on the future and trends of technology, and the internet-famous professor who "rescues" people from anxiety and the rat race era—Macfarlane and Xiang Biao—will hold a live dialogue! Limited seats, first come first served. Let us embark on this sustainable journey together! [Click to register] According to a report from Huitong Finance APP—During the Asian session on Tuesday (October 20), the WTI crude oil November contract continued its rally, currently trading around $103.60 per barrel. The continued depletion of US emergency reserves is becoming a new variable for the market in assessing supply buffers and forward risks.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell to approximately 283 million barrels last week, the lowest since October 1982, primarily because the United States has released 172 million barrels in response to supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict. Currently, the reserve is less than 40% full.
Core Data: SPR Falls to 283 Million Barrels, Lowest Since 1982
According to data from the US Department of Energy cited by a well-known media outlet, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to approximately 283 million barrels last week, the lowest level since October 1982. This decline reflects the ongoing release of 172 million barrels that the United States agreed to on March 11. The US contribution is the largest share of the 400 million barrels of crude oil and refined products release unanimously agreed upon by the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency. The release pace is slower than initially planned. The Department of Energy stated in March that at the planned discharge rate, delivery would take approximately 120 days, meaning completion around mid-July. However, the release has continued into October. According to Energy Information Administration data, the reserve is currently about 130 million barrels less than when the release began.
Reserve Background: Created in the 1970s, Authorized Capacity of 714 Million Barrels
The reserve was created in the 1970s after the Arab oil embargo exposed US vulnerability to supply shocks. Its authorized storage capacity is 714 million barrels, stored in underground salt caverns at four locations along the Gulf Coast. At current levels, the reserve is less than 40% full. The core of this context is: the SPR was designed to respond to supply shocks, and the current release is fulfilling that function, but at the cost of reserves falling to their lowest level since the early 1980s. The depletion of reserves means the US buffer capacity to respond to future supply disruptions is declining.
Exchange Structure: About 200 Million Barrels to Be Returned, Replenishment Will Add Forward Demand
Unlike direct sales, this release is conducted in the form of exchanges. Companies that take barrels from the reserve need to return them later with additional quantities. The Department of Energy stated it expects to recover approximately 200 million barrels within a year without increasing costs to taxpayers. This means the release should eventually be reversed, but once it begins, replenishing the stock itself will increase demand in the oil market. The implication of this structure is: the current release adds supply to the market, but future replenishment will add demand, providing support for forward prices.
Market Implications: Depleted Reserves Weaken Response Capacity, Risk Premium May Rise
The low level of reserves coincides with crude oil prices remaining elevated. Goldman Sachs said last week that spot Brent crude carries a risk premium of nearly $25 per barrel above its fair value estimate, citing the threat of further supply disruptions and global inventories near record lows. Depleted emergency reserves leave the US with less room to respond if the conflict escalates and supply is disrupted again. The core of this implication is: the depletion of reserves weakens the US ability to respond to a new round of supply shocks, which could increase the risk premium for crude oil if the Iran conflict escalates. Traders will closely monitor the pace of further releases and the timing of any replenishment.
Summary
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to approximately 283 million barrels last week, the lowest since October 1982, as the United States released 172 million barrels amid supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict. The reserve is currently less than 40% full, about 130 million barrels less than when the release began. The release pace is slower than planned, continuing into October. Since the release is conducted in the form of exchanges, about 200 million barrels need to be returned in the future, and replenishing the stock will increase demand later and may support forward prices. Depleted emergency reserves weaken the US ability to respond to a new round of supply shocks, and if the Iran conflict escalates, it could increase the risk premium for crude oil. Goldman Sachs estimates that spot Brent crude is nearly $25 per barrel above fair value, citing global inventories near record lows. Traders will closely monitor the pace of further releases and the timing of replenishment. For the market, the current release adds supply to a tight market, but the decline in reserve firepower and the demand for future replenishment will provide support for the oil price forward curve. (WTI crude oil November contract daily chart, source: Yihuitong) As of 7:10 Beijing time, the WTI crude oil November contract was reported at $103.67 per barrel.
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