UBS Sees Fundamental Support for Gold Rally, Prices Could Reach $5,000 by Next Year

The rally in gold, driven by sustained buying from Chinese investors and consistent inflows into gold ETFs, has pushed futures up more than 4% over the past five trading sessions, according to AlphaSpace data from Yahoo Finance. This renewed momentum marks a rebound for the precious metal, which had previously retreated following the Iran conflict that erupted in late February.

A coordinated effort by the U.S. and Japan to support the yen has alleviated concerns about a potential sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, which could have pushed bond yields higher and typically dampened the appeal of gold. However, UBS's Chief Investment Officer Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and her team issued a statement on Thursday, asserting that the current gold rally is underpinned by solid fundamentals. They project that by the first half of 2027, gold prices could approach $5,000 per ounce.

UBS strategists acknowledge that near-term risks remain, including potential upward pressure from oil prices or a shift in market expectations toward a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy, which could make bonds more attractive and weigh on gold. Despite these challenges, the institution maintains a bullish outlook for the medium to long term. Hoffmann-Burchardi noted that the team expects inflation to gradually ease, allowing the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this year and resume a rate-cutting cycle in 2027. "Growing expectations of lower policy rates are likely to drag real yields lower and weaken the U.S. dollar, thereby boosting investment demand for gold and creating a more favorable market environment," she explained.

Central banks are anticipated to continue purchasing gold, providing a solid floor for prices. Gold surged over 65% in 2025, but has traded roughly flat so far this year. The recent uptick in activity, supported by Chinese investor buying and ETF inflows, underscores the metal's enduring appeal as a store of value, as highlighted by the six factors that have sustained its preservation role for over five millennia.