The 34th Annual Global Strategy Conference hosted by Goldman Sachs in London has just concluded. This year's survey results reveal an extremely fragmented picture: on a macro level, investors have never been more optimistic (strong GDP expectations, recession risks vanished); yet in their micro-level asset allocation, they are frantically seeking safe-haven assets (gold, non-US markets) and view "geopolitics" as a Sword of Damocles hanging over their heads.
Macro Narrative Reconstructed: Recession is Dead, Geopolitics Reigns Supreme Wall Street seems to have declared victory over the economic cycle. The survey shows that fears of a US recession have almost been "zeroed out." Over 80% of clients expect US GDP growth in 2026 to exceed 2%, a figure even more optimistic than Bloomberg's consensus estimate (2.1%). In stark contrast, nobody (0%) believes a recession will occur. However, despite strong economic fundamental expectations, the risk radar is sounding a piercing alarm. Geopolitical risk, with an overwhelming 65%, is considered the biggest threat to the global economy and markets in 2026, more than doubling from last year's 30%. In comparison, the "inflation" risk that once kept markets awake at night has fallen to 12%, while trade risk has plummeted from 41% last year to a mere 4%. This implies that market pricing has completely eliminated hard landing risks while also disregarding the possibility of an inflation rebound. This in itself represents a significant expectation gap—when everyone believes the economy is safe, even minor negative data can trigger sharp volatility. Furthermore, geopolitics, as an unpredictable binary risk, is becoming the primary breeding ground for "black swan" events in market pricing.
Central Bank Policy Expectations: More Dovish Than the Fed Despite strong US economic data, institutional investors remain eager for monetary easing. The survey's weighted average expectation is that the Fed will cut rates by 70 basis points in 2026 (approximately 3 cuts), which is more aggressive than current market pricing (around 50 bps / 2 cuts). More interestingly, investors hold more dovish views on the Bank of England and the European Central Bank than current market pricing suggests. Despite hawkish rhetoric from ECB officials, 35% of investors still expect it to cut rates; expectations for the BoE are even higher, anticipating 60 basis points of cuts. This indicates that the market is currently in a "Goldilocks" illusion: enjoying both strong growth and the prospect of supportive rate cuts from central banks. However, historical experience suggests that such a perfect script rarely passes the test of reality for long.
Equity Strategy Reversal: Long China, Short the "US Stock Faith" The strategy of "blindly buying US stocks" that worked in recent years is losing its effectiveness. Although 82% of respondents are bullish on global equities finishing the year higher, a dramatic shift has occurred in regional preferences:
US Stocks Fall Out of Favor: The proportion of respondents who believe the US will be the best-performing region has plummeted, collapsing from 58% last year to 23%. This is the lowest level since January 2023. Emerging Markets Return: Investors are embracing diversification. Asia (ex-Japan) has become the most favored region, with a 38% vote. Chinese Assets See Expected Recovery: The proportion of respondents who believe China offers the best long-term investment opportunity has rebounded sharply to 25%, up from 9% over the past two years, second only to India's 33%. This suggests that smart money is beginning to re-evaluate the risk-reward profile of Chinese assets, given extremely low valuations and a policy pivot.
In terms of sector style, while tech stocks remain the top choice (31%), their leading advantage has narrowed significantly. More notably, 60% of investors believe the S&P 493 will outperform the "Magnificent Seven." This implies that the extremely crowded "AI mega-cap crowding" trade could be facing unwinding, with funds flowing towards long-neglected value opportunities.
Hard Asset Frenzy: Gold Target Raised to $5000, Oil Mired in Bear Market The commodity market exhibits extreme polarization, directly reflecting investor distrust in the fiat currency system and their assessment of real economy supply and demand:
Copper is the New Oil: 45% of investors believe copper will be the highest-returning commodity in 2026, triple last year's percentage. This is directly linked to surging power demand driven by AI data center construction and electrification. Gold Faith Soars: Gold prices have already surged 65% in 2025 (currently around $4510/oz), yet bulls remain rampant. 42% believe the price will continue to rally into the $5000-$6000 range, with another 10% targeting above $6000. Only 7% expect a pullback below $4000. Oil is Abandoned: Energy bulls have completely capitulated. 54% of respondents expect Brent crude to fall below $60/barrel (compared to just 5% last year). This reflects extreme pessimism regarding supply gluts from non-OPEC countries and peaking global demand.
This "buy metals, sell oil" strategy is essentially a bet on an "electrified future" and against the "fossil fuel era." Simultaneously, the疯狂的 gold price expectations represent not just a bet on central bank buying, but also the most direct hedge against geopolitical turmoil.
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