Hualong Securities has released a research report stating that the commercial space sector is accelerating its development, with the market scale continuing to expand. The firm maintains a "recommended" rating for the industry. Countries worldwide are speeding up applications for satellite frequency and orbital resources, and the industry landscape remains characterized by a "top-heavy" concentration, with the leading tier—comprised of the United States, Russia, and China—maintaining a solid position. China's commercial space market scale surpassed 2.5 trillion yuan by 2025, with rocket and satellite manufacturing being the primary areas of investment. By the end of 2025, multiple types of reusable Chinese rockets entered intensive recovery verification phases, laying the groundwork for future cost reductions and high-frequency launches. Key viewpoints from Hualong Securities are as follows:
Competition for frequency and orbital resources is intense, and the global contest for space resources is escalating. Earth's low Earth orbit can safely accommodate only approximately 60,000 to 100,000 satellites. The International Telecommunication Union follows a "first-come, first-served, first-served forever" principle for obtaining orbital and frequency resources, making the competition for low Earth orbit satellite resources particularly fierce. By the end of 2025, the number of satellites in orbit globally reached 16,881, nearly four times the figure from 2021. In recent years, countries worldwide have accelerated their applications for satellite frequency and orbital resources. By the end of January 2026, declared satellite numbers from large constellations in China and the United States alone exceeded 1.29 million, far exceeding the safe capacity of low Earth orbit, indicating an intensifying battle for space resources.
Global satellite deployment is accelerating, with China and the United States dominating rocket launches worldwide. The global satellite landscape continues to show a "top-heavy" characteristic, with the leading tier of the United States, Russia, and China maintaining a firm position. In 2025, there were 329 global rocket launches, with a success rate of 97.5% (321 successful orbital insertions). China and the United States dominated global launches, accounting for 83% of the total. The United States led with 181 launches, while China followed with a record 92 launches (Russia and New Zealand each had 17 launches, Europe had 8). The United States deployed 3,724 satellites, while China deployed 372 satellites.
China's commercial rocket launches have entered a scaling phase, supported by continuous policy reinforcement and rapid market growth. By the end of 2025, China had conducted 95 commercial rocket launches cumulatively, marking the beginning of large-scale deployment for national satellite constellations. At the policy level, commercial space has been elevated to a national priority, being included in the Government Work Report for two consecutive years, with various policies continually strengthened. China's commercial space market scale exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan in 2025, with rocket and satellite manufacturing being the main investment areas. By the end of 2025, multiple types of reusable Chinese rockets entered intensive recovery verification stages, establishing a foundation for future cost reductions and high-frequency launches.
The following targets are recommended for attention: (1) Rocket launches: Super Alpha (301005.SZ), Sirui New Materials (688102.SH), Bright Laser Technologies (688333.SH), Zhongtian Rocket (003009.SZ); (2) Satellite manufacturing: China Satellite (600118.SH), ZhenRui Technology (688270.SH), Aerospace Electronics (600879.SH); (3) Satellite applications: CAS Starfile (688568.SH), HuaCe Navigation (300627.SZ).
Risk warnings: Unfavorable changes in the macroeconomic environment; errors in cited data sources; slower-than-expected progress in commercial space development; inadequate or delayed policy support or implementation; slower-than-expected pace of technological updates and iterations.
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