Airbnb Will Be A Big Reopening Winner

seekingalpha2021-05-19

Summary Airbnb is poised to see a massive increase in revenues and nights booked as travel normalizes in a post-COVID-19 world. Strong growth in Airbnb’s average daily rate in the 1st quarter shows ...

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Comments

Barbarazhao
2021-05-20
Barbarazhao
I believe so. I bought this share when it dipped
sk5735
2021-05-19
sk5735
Wait long long
Walker975
2021-05-19
Walker975
I don't think so. Hotels having been affected so much would do anything they can to bring in customers and people have more disposable cash. Therefore Airbnb though might have an increase in revenue, won't be the "big" winner
- peterpak:
  agreed. especially hotels that provide some certification of hygiene levels...
Jacjacjacjac
2021-05-19
Jacjacjacjac
Noted
- Jacjacjacjac:
  ?
- DarrylWong:
  ok can

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So do travel surveys.\nAirbnb is expensive, but the drop creates a buy point.\n\nPhoto by felixmizioznikov/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nAs the economy gets ready to reopen and mask restrictions are relaxed, travel is going to resume. Airbnb (ABNB) is perfectly positioned to benefit from a resumption of travel in a post-COVID-19 world.\nWhy Airbnb is a buy\nAirbnb, an online booking platform that connects mostly private landlords with business and leisure travelers, has been a COVID-19 loser.\nIn a world defined by social distancing rules, mask requirements and government-mandated travel restrictions, the firm experienced a steep drop-off in booking volumes and related sales last year, but there are signs that the booking firm has moved past the depth of the crisis… and is set to grow again.\nAirbnb's gross booking value, which is the total amount of dollars processed through its platform, and average daily rates surged in the 1st quarter.\nAirbnb processed $10.3b of gross bookings in the 1st quarter which was 75% higher than in the previous quarter. The number of nights booked through its platform surged 39% in the 1st quarter to 64.4m as leisure and business travel is rebounding… and more is likely to come as the world gets ready to move on from COVID-19.\nAirbnb's average daily rate increased 25% Q/Q to $159.82 in the 1st quarter due to strong pent-up demand in North America.\n\n\n\nFY 2021\nFY 2020\nFY 2019\n\n\nQ1\nQ4\nQ3\nQ2\nQ1\nQ4\nQ3\nQ2\nQ1\n\n\nNights booked (millions)\n64.4\n46.3\n61.8\n28.0\n57.1\n75.8\n85.9\n83.9\n81.3\n\n\nGross booking value (billions)\n$10.3\n$5.9\n$8.0\n$3.2\n$6.8\n$8.5\n$9.7\n$9.8\n$10.0\n\n\nAverage Daily Rate\n$159.82\n$127.56\n$129.95\n$114.18\n$118.45\n$112.63\n$112.39\n$117.14\n$122.36\n\n\n\n(Source: Author, Airbnb Financial Statements)\nPredictably, FY 2020 was a bad year for Airbnb, though not as bad as some had predicted: Airbnb's revenues dropped \"only\" 30% in the 2020- COVID-19 year. Cruise line companies, airlines or hotels lost much more than 30% of their revenues.\n(Source:Airbnb)\nAirbnb racked up big losses during the pandemic. Cumulative losses for the four quarters in 2020 totaled $4.6b and for every dollar the firm brought in in revenues, it lost $1.36.\nThis is not representative, however, because the firm had only recently had its IPO and results were impacted by items in the 4th quarter that were not related to Airbnb's day-to-day business. These items include $2.8b of non-cash stock-based compensation expenses related to the firm's IPO last year.\n(Source: Airbnb)\nWhile 2020 was a year to forget, Airbnb's booking business is bouncing back… and it has a lot of runway.\nThe firm's number of nights booked hit a pandemic record of 64.4m in the 1st quarter 2021. The number of booked nights in Airbnb's business hasn't been this high since before the pandemic and people are willing to spend more money on trips. Proof of that is the 1st quarter jump in Airbnb's average daily rate.\nAfter a year of psychologically stressful lockdowns, pent-up demand for travel is strong. Surveys show that people are looking forward to traveling again which obviously will benefit the travel industry including hotels, airlines, cruise line companies and online booking platforms.\n(Source: Airbnb)\nAirbnb's 2nd quarter is going to show a lot of growth in revenues and nights booked. This is because the firm's generous cancellation policy at the beginning of the pandemic depressed revenues, gross booking volumes and nights booked in the 2nd quarter last year, so comparisons will therefore by highly favorable to Airbnb. Additionally, as travel resumes and restrictions are lifted in 2021, Airbnb should sustain 1st quarter booking trends and the average daily rate could grow 10-20% in FY 2021.\nChallenges and opportunities\nThere are risks with Airbnb, as there always are, but all remaining risks pale in comparison to what the firm already went through during the pandemic.\nCOVID-19 and other, potentially vaccine-resistant virus strains pose big risks for Airbnb's booking business. The same goes for other pandemics that unfortunately now have the potential to disrupt cross-border travel.\nLong term, Airbnb could even be pandemic winner… if travel habits change and travelers prefer to stay alone or in small groups in an Airbnb rather than in big, crowded hotels.\nWith that in mind, Airbnb is posing a serious threat to the hotel industry and operates a truly disruptive business model.\nHigh valuation for an incredible growth opportunity\nAirbnb's global landlord platform creates a big scaling opportunity for the firm… and it shows in the valuation.\nAirbnb is by far the most expensive platform, although the comparison is not perfect. Airbnb is more focused on private landlords while other travel companies that operate booking platforms cater more to professional sellers such as hotels or guesthouses. This could change, however.\nAt the moment, Airbnb has a P-S ratio of 11.2x and the firm is not profitable yet. It has the highest P-S ratio because of its unique competitive position and growth opportunity in the private landlord space.\n\n\n\nMarket Cap\nFY 2022 Est. Revenues\nP-S ratio\nP-E ratio\n\n\nAirbnb\n$77.5 billion\n$6.9 billion\n11.2\n--\n\n\nBooking Holdings\n$88.3 billion\n$14.5 billion\n6.1\n24.0x\n\n\nExpedia\n$24.3 billion\n$11.3 billion\n2.1\n26.1x\n\n\nTripadvisor\n$5.4 billion\n$1.3 billion\n4.1\n31.9x\n\n\nAverage\n$48.9 billion\n$8.5 billion\n5.9\n27.3x\n\n\n\n(Source: Author)\nAirbnb has traded lower, which potentially creates a buy point to buy a super fast growing booking platform. Like many other tech names, Airbnb is oversold.\n(Source: Finviz)\nClosing thoughts\nThere is still time to invest in the travel rebound and Airbnb might just be the vessel to do it with.\nAirbnb's 1st quarter showed recovering booking strength and the firm should be a big reopening winner as the world moves on from COVID-19.\nThe stock is expensive, but the firm also has a unique opportunity to take a big bite out of the global rental market.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":197548599,"gmtCreate":1621475619011,"gmtModify":1704358191966,"author":{"id":"3576888762442253","authorId":"3576888762442253","name":"Barbarazhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f6fdeabe0e8cac300f1fd2a17eb3ac","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576888762442253","authorIdStr":"3576888762442253"},"htmlText":"I believe so. I bought this share when it dipped&nbsp;","listText":"I believe so. I bought this share when it dipped&nbsp;","text":"I believe so. I bought this share when it dipped","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197548599","repostId":1186388488,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197926511,"gmtCreate":1621421681933,"gmtModify":1704357346016,"author":{"id":"3581741175905126","authorId":"3581741175905126","name":"sk5735","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/119fc82bddd3291f8c7e303167676732","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581741175905126","authorIdStr":"3581741175905126"},"htmlText":"Wait long long&nbsp;","listText":"Wait long long&nbsp;","text":"Wait long long","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197926511","repostId":1186388488,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197931069,"gmtCreate":1621417452051,"gmtModify":1704357284431,"author":{"id":"3572845868461823","authorId":"3572845868461823","name":"Walker975","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a7e91bc7c022014ade594c1f141089","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572845868461823","authorIdStr":"3572845868461823"},"htmlText":"I don't think so. Hotels having been affected so much would do anything they can to bring in customers and people have more disposable cash. Therefore Airbnb though might have an increase in revenue, won't be the \"big\" winner","listText":"I don't think so. Hotels having been affected so much would do anything they can to bring in customers and people have more disposable cash. Therefore Airbnb though might have an increase in revenue, won't be the \"big\" winner","text":"I don't think so. Hotels having been affected so much would do anything they can to bring in customers and people have more disposable cash. Therefore Airbnb though might have an increase in revenue, won't be the \"big\" winner","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197931069","repostId":1186388488,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4429060,"gmtCreate":1621831679563,"gmtModify":1680790597842,"authorId":3579228873956938,"author":{"id":3579228873956938,"idStr":"3579228873956938","authorId":3579228873956938,"name":"peterpak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bcb427166f954747346dc4725836438","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197931069,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"agreed. especially hotels that provide some certification of hygiene levels...","text":"agreed. especially hotels that provide some certification of hygiene levels...","html":"agreed. especially hotels that provide some certification of hygiene levels..."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":197045187,"gmtCreate":1621414125549,"gmtModify":1704357235237,"author":{"id":"3575020360100013","authorId":"3575020360100013","name":"Jacjacjacjac","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6407ac926adff6fe15f2b6904fd16fef","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575020360100013","authorIdStr":"3575020360100013"},"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197045187","repostId":1186388488,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4395894,"gmtCreate":1621556380054,"gmtModify":1680790013446,"authorId":3575020360100013,"author":{"id":3575020360100013,"idStr":"3575020360100013","authorId":3575020360100013,"name":"Jacjacjacjac","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6407ac926adff6fe15f2b6904fd16fef","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.42%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197045187,"type":1,"supId":4377678,"prevId":0,"content":"?","text":"?","html":"?"},{"id":4377678,"gmtCreate":1621415342667,"gmtModify":1680789685038,"authorId":3580190462625568,"author":{"id":3580190462625568,"idStr":"3580190462625568","authorId":3580190462625568,"name":"DarrylWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e4b82d595be883bcd8e099845c3f407","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":197045187,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok can","text":"ok can","html":"ok can"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":11,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1186388488"}