The gold market concluded last week with a gain exceeding 2%, halting a four-week decline, and positions based on the non-farm payrolls data proved profitable. This week, geopolitical developments remain in focus. The US and Iran are set to resume talks in Pakistan, with discussions expected to cover sanctions, frozen assets, and nuclear programs. Additionally, the release of the FOMC meeting minutes early Thursday will serve as a crucial window into the operational style of the new Federal Reserve leadership.
On Monday, July 6th, attention turns to the stance of the new Fed Chair, Walsh. Recent remarks at a European Central Bank forum indicated a softening from his initial hawkish posture. He acknowledged that "inflation risks have subsided" and explicitly declined to provide forward guidance on interest rate hikes. The market has interpreted this as a dovish signal. The fact that even a noted policy hawk is no longer emphasizing rate increases provides greater comfort to bullish investors.
In essence, the combination of the non-farm payrolls report and Walsh's comments has significantly loosened the weight of "rate hike expectations," which had been pressuring gold prices. With no major US economic data scheduled for release today, the market is primarily digesting last week's jobs-driven movements. Trading is likely to involve back-and-forth action around key technical levels, with a low probability of a sharp, sustained move in either direction.
From a technical perspective, gold staged a continuous rebound in the latter half of last week, forming a rising channel on the hourly chart. However, the price has now approached the channel's upper resistance boundary. Friday's price action did not provide strong momentum for a further push higher. Although there was a rebound after today's open, it lacked follow-through. This choppy price action confirms the presence of overhead resistance in the short term, warranting caution for a potential technical correction early in the week.
Overall, the broader bullish correction trend remains intact, but short-term indicators are overbought and require a pullback. For intraday trading, a range between 4150 and 4200 is anticipated. The primary strategy is to look for buying opportunities on dips towards the 4150-55 support zone. Avoid chasing longs near 4200; instead, consider light short positions if resistance holds. A decisive break above 4205 would warrant a follow-the-trend approach. Always employ strict stop-losses and avoid over-leveraging.
Key Financial Data and Events for Monday, July 6, 2026
21:45 US S&P Global Services PMI Final (June)
22:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (June)
22:00 US Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (June)
23:00 Speeches by Fed Governor Waller and others
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